Next Decade 2010-2020: Some Predictions/Expectations

Many exciting predications have appeared in media about India in 2020. I may doubt if I shall be able to witness the achievement of India by 2020. But these predictions are also something that makes persons such as me aspire and provide strong will to live longer. And perhaps that is the reason that any prediction that relates to 2030 such as one by London-based Legatum Institute doesn’t make me exhilarated, though it predicts India to be the world’s most important economic power by 2030.

Is it not exciting when the prime minister of the country declares the decade 2010 as the “Decade of Innovations”? And it is clear it shall not happen in the final year. One can see and feel it happening in the whole period. And how good as an Indian I shall feel seeing the wishes of Raghuram Rajan, Professor of Finanace at University of Chicago’s Booth School of business and Honorary Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister getting realized? He has said, “If India has to take its rightful place among nations, every sixth CEO of a Fortune 500 firm should be an Indian. Every sixth Nobel Prize winner should be an Indian.” Perhaps similar was the target set by C K Prahalad, one of the topmost management thinkers of the time.

I have been writing so many times about India vs. China. And every news report of China excelling India by manifold, I confess, makes me envy. So will I not be really excited to see India overtaking China as Swaminathan Aiyar and many predict?

However, I find T N Ninan of Business Standard giving some factual details and that makes morose.

India in all probability will continue to achieve economic growth at an annual rate of 9 per cent. India’s GDP will go up from about $1.3 trillion (Rs 60 lakh crore) today to 2.2 times that figure a decade from now in 2020, at just under $3 trillion at today’s prices and exchange rates.

The number of households with a monthly income of Rs 25,000 and more should more than treble, from about 30 million today to 100 million by 2020. The spending power of the middle class will multiply six-fold. Some markets will grow tenfold in the next decade.

However, per capita income will have doubled to become a little better than where Sri Lanka’s is today!

India’s share of global GDP will be only slightly better than 4 per cent even in 2020 – well short of the 24 per cent that prevailed more than three centuries ago, and not much better than the 3.8 per cent of 1952!

2010=20 will certainly be the ‘deciding decade‘ for India. It requires continuously rising saving and consistently maintaining investment booms. But more important will be the priority for massive quality education programmes and health care measures rather than the present gimmicks of loan waivers and innovations for winning the elections.

And those who shall get it happen must realize that 2020 is less than ten years away. But this is doable.

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Bihar’s Miracle May Make Other States Envy

Bihar is India’s new miracle economy. It was one of the main news headlines on the front page of Sunday Times of India. Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar’s column in Economic Times was the reason for this headline.

If I go by my inbox e-mails, the news has excited many well-wishers of Bihar. I did also get a kick. Only recently I had gone through some articles based on the panel discussion organized by Business Standard Hindi in Patna that had made me morose and so I wrote ‘Bihar’s Bad Luck’. Let us see what Aiyar says:

“The best news comes from Bihar, historically the biggest failure. From 2004-05 to2008-09, Bihar averaged 11.03% growth annually. It was virtually India’s fastest growing state, on par with Gujarat (11.05%). That represents a sensational turnaround. Nitish Kumar deserves an award for the most inclusive revolution of the decade.”

I have also gone through the recently published progress report for the last four years of Nitish rule. As usual, that is so poorly drafted by the babus that one hardly gets enthused to complete it. Why can’t the officers who go to all sorts of management training bring some freshening changes in their presentations and working?

The state will have the next election for the state assembly this year itself. Lalu and Ram Vilas are camping in Patna and consistently teasing and obstructing Nitish to make the people of Bihar notice their presence. Will Aiyar’s certificate matter in bringing the election result in Nitish’s favour? I doubt as it will hardly reach to those who matter in these elections.

However, the news will certainly help in changing the image of Bihar overall. Nitish has certainly worked hard to reach the people. His achievements have been many. I have been regularly writing about my expectations. But I wonder why Nitish doesn’t involve the people more. Why can’t he appeal to the rich business people of India to help him in providing education facilities, say at least 100 Higher Secondary Schools and 50 engineering and medical colleges, even if necessary on their terms in Bihar? Why can’t he involve the educationists of the state to scale up the quantity of intake and the quality of teaching in its existing science and commerce colleges? Some of them might wish to become entrepreneurs themselves. If it can be a lucrative business in other states, why can’t it be so in Bihar? I am sure some in his government itself are not the obstructionists. I wish he would have wound up different state school boards and got all schools affiliated to central boards to bring better equity at national level.

I would have loved to see a healthcare centre in any of the village- my own, maternal one or one from where my wife comes. I myself and my sons in US would have loved to contribute as much as we could. In my own village, I would have given my land for it. I can also contribute the investment required for a Knowledge Centre with computer and Internet facilities on pattern of ITC’s e-choupal for my village. But there is no such initiative at work.

But I am really happy with the findings of Mr. Aiyar. It certainly highlights that Bihar has a huge potential to get out from its laggard status. And the industrialists must come forward and invest there. Nitish must get his due reward and the people must elect him again and not the suspect black sheep.

And as Aiyar wishes, ‘Let us celebrate the emergence of Bihar’ and pray that Bihar gets it due from centres and business community to make it a respectable and prosperous state.

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Bihar’s Bad Luck

Yesterday I happened to talk to Alok, my cousin in village. I wanted to know about the health of my uncle. And he informed that uncle was in other village, Samahuta where cycles were getting distributed to students of Girls High School. I felt good. Nitish government has done good work on rural roads. At least, the girls will use the cycles.

As it appears, the next state assembly election is pretty near. All the news reports from the state indicate that. Each of the troika is busy in doing everything to grab the state or at least to remain relevant in state politics.

While incumbency may be against Nitish, his performance in the last four years has made a big change in perception of Bihar in the country and makes him the best choice for the next time too. The Bihar government has come out with its exhaustive performance report of the last four years that it completed on November 24, 2009 on PatnaDaily.com today. The reports are in part I, II, and III and present pretty rosy picture. I don’t how many will go through it and will it influence the people who matter in the next election. It is a special edition with Nitish portrait on cover and declaring him as Person of the Year- 2009.

Unfortunately, even with a real improvement in law and order confirmed by many independent observers, Bihar has failed to attract significant number of big private entrepreneurs. Nitish thinks without the centre granting the status of “special category state” to Bihar with exemption of taxes, it will not be possible. Even the hope of revival of sugar industry is almost dead: “There just isn’t enough sugarcane to feed the mills, investors say. Set up the mills and the sugarcane will follow you, Kumar counters.”

Unfortunately, even with a real improvement in law and order confirmed by many independent observers, Bihar has failed to attract significant number of big private entrepreneurs. Nitish thinks without the centre granting the status of “special category state” to Bihar with exemption of taxes, it will not be possible. Shaibal Gupta, Economist and Member Secretary, Asian Development Research Institute, Patna endorses the view. Even the hope of revival of sugar industry is almost dead: “There just isn’t enough sugarcane to feed the mills, investors say. Set up the mills and the sugarcane will follow you, Kumar counters.” Some suggests that Bihar will have to look for its own entrepreneurs for investments. Is it prudent? Could Bengal get entrepreneurs even with better indigenous resources of raw materials and trained labour till Buddha took some personal initiatives? Interestingly, according an industry estimates, local entrepreneurs have invested close to Rs 1,500 crore in the recent past. But Bihar needs huge investment and it can come only from the bigger established houses.

Perhaps for the first time Business Standard has published some pretty balanced views on Bihar’s problems in its issue of January 2, 2010, based on a roundtable discussion arranged by its Hindi edition. The centre has been negligent to Bihar. And for many of its ills, it must take responsibility. And TN Ninan has been very forthright: “It is not possible to solve the problems of Bihar by forcing Biharis to go to Mumbai; they need options in their own state. Once again, it is public policy that has failed. The surprising truth is that fiscal transfers from the Centre to the states have worked against the poorest states; if Maharashtra got the same per capita fiscal transfers that Bihar did, the story in that state would have been the same as in Bihar (as the Thackerays should be told). As in so many other things, the starting point has to be public investment.”

Lalu and Ramvilash have been busy only in negative politics. Even during the period when both were senior ministers in the UPA-I, they did anything concrete to pull up the fortunes of unfortunate people of Bihar. None of their projects is going to see daylight. Discarded by Congress after the 2009 parliamentary election when they lost the mandate from the people of the state, they reached Patna and started making the life of Nitish miserable. I am sure they could have done some positive work with so big a following. At least, they would have taken intensive tour of the state and convinced the people to send their children to schools. But as I understand, they wish to keep them ignorant as that can only help them.

But Nitish with all the good work done can’t escape my criticism.

Unfortunately, Nitish lacks good advisors, and has fewer aggressive implementers in his team.

Nitish would have encouraged many more entrepreneurs such as Kausalendra, if required through his personal mentorship to exploit the potential of Bihar for enhancing the production of quality vegetables that would have brought prosperity and happiness to a large number of petty farmers of Bihar.

Nitish would have taken personal interest in getting private educational institutes for higher education set up in every district, if not in every block of Bihar to stop Bihar’s huge money going out of the state.
Nitish did also fail to make the poor owners of the trees that they plant under NREGA on government land. Nitish could have certainly distributed the land available with the government to needy without fearing the reaction in some circle.

Nitish did not take any initiative to encourage private entrepreneurs to build planned new cities on the two express ways- Golden Quadrilateral and East West Corridor passing through the states. Bihar could have 20 such cities. It would have certainly boosted the state economy and provided employment too. Perhaps his socialism is stopping him from taking such a bold step.

Will Congress Party at centre change its attitude and come out with the special status for Bihar? Will Rahul Gandhi interfere in case of Bihar too as he did for Bundelkhand? Can some young men from Bihar impress upon Rahul its necessity for winning over Bihar at least to some extent? Will Nitish change his present alliance partner with Congress? Will it win Bihar to bring Bihar back on the path of prosperi

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2009: The Year that it was

The year saw a general election, where one old man lost, while the other one own. A deserving Indian owned an Oscar. A person of Indian origin got a Nobel. Indian Chandrayan detected water traces on moon. Indian cricket came to the top. India kept on improving its image at various global meets. However, I want to think back on personal front here today.

Some year in personal life appears to be more satisfying. 2009 is one such year. In early months we had been to Salt Lake, Kolkata and in the concluding months, we took up the tours of Tamil Nadu. The main task at Salt Lake was to explore the possibility of disposing off the property there but only at my target price. It didn’t happen, but then we found it prudent to wind up its establishment that we were maintaining. We rented the whole house. It meant disposal, gifting and shifting of a huge lot of items collected in about forty years while working for Hindustan Motors. However, we could sell the land at Hind Motor that Yamuna had bought for setting up some commercial units if not by me, perhaps by one of three sons. We got a fair price, but there was no pint in waiting with some prospective crook to trouble.



From Salt Lake, we went for a short holiday to Andaman. That was just fantastic outing. I had never thought it to be so charming. Both these trips this year were little different too from the ones undertaken in last few years after coming to Noida, as we did get any other friend or family members to go with us. I think Andaman has not got the attention it deserved over the years; otherwise it could have been envy for many and could compete with Hongkong or Singapore. During my stay at Salt Lake, we visited Birlapur and spent some quality time with Pradip’s family. Pradip is the link of the legacy in Birlapur that my grandfather started. His portrait in Pradip’s residence reminded me of many things of the past.

Tamil Nadu tour was highly informative but very extensive and tiring. Temples of South are just wonderful. Every temple has something unique and special. Meenakshi was certainly the best. And over the years these temples have kept the idea of one India survive. As a good Hindu, one is expected to visit the religious places. Though the purpose is to get rid of one’s sins, but most probably that was the fear feature introduced by the saints to make the people visit different places in different part of the country and see the outside world. The concept of Char Dhams-Badrinath, Puri, Dwarka, and Rameswaram on the four sides of the country, certainly confirms that. And it is happening since ages, when there were no railways. The pilgrims used to take leave from the family members before embarking upon these pilgrimages because of the uncertainly about the returning. I remember my first journey to Chennai and the pilgrims that I met on the station and their problems particularly because of the language. My great grandmother who had visited Rameswaram must have undergone the same agony. Why can’t the politicians understand that and avoid linguistic discouragement against Hindi? Fortunately, with the visit to Rameswaram, we have completed the Char Dham.

My only anguish was the loss of my camera in Tirupati and with it all the photographs in it.

We pray for the next year to be better.

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नए दशक की आशा

एक नया दशक
दस्तक देता
दरवाजे पर.

खोलो कपाट
आये बयार
बदलो जहान
सबकी जय हो.

कुछ नए स्वप्न
कुछ नए लक्ष्य
कुछ नए गीत ले नए छंद
छू, छू ओठों को जाते हैं.

पर मन बिद्रोही कहता
है ललकार लिए-

रे ! नहीं प्रलय की बात करो
न हिम गलने की भ्रान्ति भरो
हम सभी सजग हो जायेंगे
धरती को हमीं बचायेंगे
यह दशक बड़ा न्यारा होगा
सब जीर्ण शीर्ण मिट जाएगा
हर ओर ज्ञान धरा होगा
जो हर मन को हर्सायेगा
यह धरती हरी भरी होगी
नदियाँ कलकल बहती होगी
सागर का नाद मधुर होगा

पर सोच वहीँ रूक जाती है
एक प्रश्न उभर ही आता है
‘क्या लोभ, काम मिट जायेगा?’ <

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Last Decade (2000-09) and Changing India

The Last Decade has been the best for Indian economy. Per capita GDP has more than doubled from Rs 15,625 in 2000 to Rs 37,490 in 2009; Foreign Reserves have risen nine-fold from $ 34 billion to $286 billion in the same period; Outbound FDI rose from $750 million in 200-01 to $16.7 billion in 2007-08 with global acquisition from $10 million to $12 billion; Tax mop-up trebled; the Bombay Stock Exchange’s market capitalization has soared from $184 billion to over $1.2 trillion; investment’s contribution to GDP overtook consumption’s; industry (20%) overtakes agriculture (17%); Indian households save more than the Chinese; while the GDP reached one trillion mark making redistribution growth increase stupendously possible; number of “middle class” households grew 15 times since 2001. Here are some figures:

Cellular Phones: The number of subscribers that was 1.4 million in 1999 is 488 million in 2009 that is 500-fold rise and makes India number 2. Calls cost roughly Rs 4 a minute in 2000 and as on today calls cost 20 paise a minute.

Property Boom: In March 1999, outstanding housing loans were worth a total of Rs 11,404 crore, but by March 2009, the figure reached over 20-fold to Rs 2.77 lakh crore. Loans to households increased rapidly- from roughly 12 percent in 1999, the share of retail loans in aggregate bank loans went to over 25 percent in 2008.

And Malls: In 1999, India had just four malls in three cities of a total of 1.6 lakh sq feet and but by 2009, the number reached 210 malls in 37 cities with 5.36 crore sq ft.

Indian students in foreign universities: Some 50,000 Indians were studying abroad in 1999; the figure has gone up five-fold to 2.54 lakh in 2009, about 103,000 in US alone.

ATMs: From just 1,280 in 1999, the number of ATMs in India will be going up to almost 50,000 by the end of 2009.

Indians Going Abroad: The number of Indians going abroad for business and pleasure steadily rose from 4.1 million in 1999 to 10.7 million in 2008, and Indians are no more penurious but big spender.

Laptops: According to IDC India, 23,038 notebook PCs were sold in 1999, while almost 22 lakh have been sold in the 12 month-period ending September 2009. Some 19 million Indians have signed on one or the other social networking site, and the estimate about the number of Indians writing blogs may anywhere between 200,000 to 500,000.

Between 2000 and 2009, the price of gold or the fee of IIMs increased manifold. Gold price of 10 gm that was Rs 4,475 has reached Rs 18,000, while the tuition fee at IIM-A has gone up from Rs 1.8 lakh to 12.9 lakh.

But mobile phone that was priced at Rs 10,000 in 2000 is at Rs 3000 with better features. Perhaps similar is the fall in prices of branded PCs, TVs, Air conditioners, and for many such home appliances and services such as airfare and internet.

And the next decade

And the next decade will be better for India. Indian economy will be $3 trillion in just 10 years.According to several projections, India will overtake China as the world’s fastest growing economy by 2020, and be the world’s third largest economy by 2025. According to another prediction, the number of households earning Rs 200,000 to Rs 1 million a year will have risen to 583 million from the current 50 million.

But

Interestingly but, at the end of the decade, I buy both a kilogram of moog dal and a litre of refined oil Saffola Gold at the same price of Rs 110. I never dreamt this to happen. Is it man-made providential of due to globalization?

And because of poor execution of the projects, and so even with trillion-dollar economy India is the one of the most illiterate and malnourished nation with some 100 million families without water at home, and over 150 million households without electricity. Will the next decade wipe out the poverty from India?

====
And Read The Decade that was India’s
Calling it ‘The Decade That Was India’s’, Wall Street Journal. a leading US daily says India’s ability to make the success of the last 10 years the norm across regions and industries, ‘could well pave the way for an Indian century.'</

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The Decade (2000-09) and Arriving India

Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar in his weekly column in Sunday Times of India, December 27, 2009 has summarized India’s emergence or arrival.

“In the 2000s, business and knowledge process outsourcing followed the lead of computer software to become globally competitive. India proved that its main advantage lay not in cheap labour but cheap skills. Professor Vivek Wadhwa said Indian companies “have climbed the value chain to become outsourced providers of critical R&D in sophisticated areas such as semiconductor design, aerospace, automotive, network equipment and medical devices. This is happening as multi-nationals set up their own R&D operations in India and partner with local shops. Both the Palm Pre smartphone and the Amazon Kindle, two of the hottest consumer electronics devices on the market, have key components designed in India. Intel designed its sixcore Xeon processor in India. IBM has over 100,000 employees in India. A large number of these are building Big Blue’s most sophisticated software products. Cisco is developing cutting edge networking technologies for futuristic ‘intelligent cities’ in Bangalore. Adobe, Cadence, Oracle, Microsoft and most of the large software companies are developing mainstream products in India.”

“Cheap skills enabled Tata Motors to produce the Nano, the cheapest car in the world. Bharat Forge is set to become the biggest auto forgings company in the world. Reliance has created the largest oil refinery complex in the world at Jamnagar.

Instead of being swallowed by MNCs, Indians went on a global acquisition spree. Tata Steel acquired several foreign plants including Corus, and now gets 65% of its revenue from global operations. Every top pharma company has become a multi-national. Economist Arvind Subramanian says India has beaten China in terms of overseas investment as a percentage of GDP.”

William Dalrymple, the popular writer on India related stories, sees India as follows:

“India is changing but I don’t think India is losing its soul or changing so fast that it’s unrecognizable. You go a few kilometres outside Gurgaon and you can see a bullock cart.” “In soft power, India is way ahead. At all levels, Indian culture is dominant. And the Chinese can’t compete with that at all. China is turning India’s neighbours into its satellites. This is a lesson for India.”

Why can’t India leverage its soft power that can make it noticed and respected? Will India take the lessons? And India must. If China can build the highest speed train in record time, why can’t India complete its rail project to Kashmir Valley even in a decade? When will India learn to plan, design and build some landmark projects?

However, some reports appearing in foreign journals are exciting and hopeful about India. According to ‘Business Week‘, ‘urban consumers in India will likely drive more global business than their Chinese counterparts while India’s rural development far outpaces China’s.’ Domestic consumption accounts for two-thirds of the Indian economy, compared to less than a third of China’s. An approximately 300-million-strong middle class-compared with China’s 100 to 200 million, depending on how one defines “middle class”-is overwhelmingly independent of the government.

Some think,India is closer to catching China than many believe.

Can it happen in the decade that is ahead?

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Birlapur: Down the Memory Lane

After many years I visited Birlapur when I was in Salt Lake early this year. Birlapur, the industrial township that was born around the first Indian jute mill that was set up by GD Birla, is gasping. It reminded me of a similar or worse condition of another Birla company and its township, called Hind Motor. Unfortunately, I spent a good time of my life in both the places.

I lived in Birlapur in my childhood for schooling with my grandparents and other family members at different time. I witnessed its growing brick by brick. Many manufacturing facilities beside jute got added. Infrastructure also grew fast. One of them was the market complex that had large number of shops all around, separate shades for vegetables, fish and mutton etc. It had a big courtyard that was used only for weekly bazaar. I remember this court yard used to take a great festive look during Durga Puja. A huge pandal used to come up where various professional groups performed Bangali Yatras.

I still have the nightmarish memory of the football ground where I met with the major accident when my left ankle got fractured under a manual pulled road roller. Our headmaster had instructed the students to bring that for a show by a body builder who was going to put that heavy roller on his chest. I still remember the nuisance that I had created for my grandparents with my pain on the first night. I had to go the Calcutta Medical College where the ankle and a portion of my leg got plastered. For a long time I could not go to school. BK Sarbajna, my headmaster, started calling me as ‘Khoda’ (lame) after I joined class with plaster on.

Our headmaster had a great personality, pretty tall, and with impressive moustaches just like Sir Asutosh Mukherji. He always put on hand washed white dhoti and kurta. As I remember, he had authored books in English. One of those relating to the lives of great Indians was a rapid reader in class VII. I started in this school, Birlapur Vidyalaya, as regular student from class VI in 1950. I remember many of the teachers: Mullica Babe was my class teacher in class VI. I topped that year itself and continued to do that till the test examination conducted by the school for sent up. My class teacher Shri Tarak Nath Mandal of class X gave so much marks in Bengali to my friend Tapobrata Sarkar that made me second. Tarak Babu was the private tutor of Tapobrata. Tarak Babu checked the answer books of the two papers of Bengali language. For my Hindi papers, Shri MBL Shrivastava, the assistant head master was the scorer. Naturally, he would never have expected that. Curtsey Tarak Babu, Tapobrata scored above 80 in language papers. I had felt very bad when Tarak Babu as class teacher announced the rank. But in the High School Board examination, Tapobrata scored far less than me. I could never forget the partisan act of Tarak Babu.



I do also remember my Pandit Mosai who taught Sanskrit. I scored pretty high marks (in 70s) in Sanskrit in School Final examination of West Bengal Board. He wanted me to join in humanities for higher education instead of joining science stream. I took tuition for some time in class X from Shri Kisori Mohan Roy Chaudhry for mathematics, my favourite subjects. I used to go to his residence. For some time, Aditi Sardar who was one year junior to me in school used to be there during tuition. I don’t know if my score of 94 in School Final made him happy.

I remember few more interesting incidents. I participated in recitation and acted in dramas. While playing as Ajay in ‘Mewar Patan’ of D.L.Roy, when my toy pistol didn’t work, I made a pistol-like sound from my mouth. The whole auditorium burst into big laughter. I was of 12 years at that time. I was never good in sports but when I was in class X, I played volleyball some time. And once my friends, who respected me for my scholarship took me in team too, when they went to play against Batanagar High School.

I got selected to represent the school in one outstation camp of the students from various schools for a week in Ghatsila. I remember it as Kailash Nath Katju, the then governor of West Bengal had come to see us off at Howrah Railway Station. He talked to me in Hindi and asked me to do the best in career. My grandfather was also present at time. He felt very happy about my interactions with His Excellency Katju.

During school days, one of my favourite places after school hours was the jetty of the jute mills. I used to sit near a crane and kept on seeing the river flowing. I was shocked to see its condition. Perhaps, the mode of transportation has changed.


Jetty, Birlaline,Hospital and Calcium Carbide Unit

A huge library was housed in a big hall in residential complex for senior executives, where the chief engineer of the mill, ML Sengupta had his residence. He was not only respected for his engineering skill, he was also a great actor. I still get reminded of his acting as Chanakya in D.L. Roy’s ‘Chandra Gupta’. He was just superb. I read almost all the quality books of Hindi from the library. I also kept on reading Hindi books from the personal library of Shrivastava. He wondered why I am not focusing on the impending School Final Board Examination. I used to read those, as I was really bored with the text books by the time.

The visit to Birlapur this year was a travel down the memory lanes for me. I visited the factory, the school, and the residential areas. In school, I was excited to see the Board of Honours that has my name still in that. I got back to my school days and could remember the class rooms that I attended. I remembered how Srivastavaji used to teach me Hindi as the lone student in a class room. I wish some ex-student takes initiative to organize the old boys meet. I would love to go to my school and talk to the students and teachers. Unfortunately, I couldn’t meet any, because it was holiday for school.

The residential units of Birlapur are in bad shape. While visiting Birla Line where I lived with my grandparents, I got reminded of many sweet memories. I used to sit on the grass or swing in the lawn very often. I still vividly remember the day after my School final Examination result was out. I was sitting there alone. Suddenly I saw Mr. Ramlal Thirani, the General Manager and Mr.S. Mishra, Chief of Personnels coming towards me. Mr. Thirani embraced and congratulated me.

The factory is in bad shape. Units that produced Linoleum, staple fibre, and calcium carbide are closed. Even the market and the hospital appeared to be deserted and abandoned.

Birlapur and Hind Motor are the case examples of family enterprise that flourishes and declines with the man who establishes it. The decline of the destiny of Birlapur and Hind Motor started after the death of MP Birla and BM Birla respectively.

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Rural India Changing Harvest

Inflation of the prices of the fruits and vegetables has been alarming. Who is responsible and who gains out of this inflation? Unfortunately, the farmers don’t. As good news, the Indian farmers are trying to work against all odds such as water scarcity and government impertinence to sustain the livelihood from the gradually diminishing landholding due to family fragmentation.

Many enterprising farmers are taking bold steps and switching over to the crops that have better market and better return. With improving road connectivity, it is getting easier to reach the markets.

I get reminded of my grandfather in our remote village. He used to advise to take some grapes for keeping fit during college days. The grapes were really costly and scarce in those days. In summer, one could not find milk in Sasaram even with villages all around it. Things have changed. Many in villages are keeping good breed of cows, supply milk regularly to the collection centre and get a regular extra income. Even the state governments are trying to emulate the successful enterprises of the other state. As reported, Bihar is planning to set up a large number of mini-dairies.

I was talking to Pintoo in his village in Bihar today morning. He was in his fields irrigating his wheat field. I was surprised when he started talking about sprinklers and drip irrigation. With roads reaching his village, he with his cousins is trying to have some commercial crops such as peppermint. May be pretty soon, they switch to vegetables and fruits too.

A farmer with small landholding up to 10 acres can’t be reasonably affluent unless he switches to produce vegetables, fruits, and have commercial plantations for additional earning. He will have to adapt the best possible farming practices too.

And the good news is that it is happening in many states. The urban Indian consumers today get exotic strawberries, kiwi fruit all the year round and celery, cauliflower and green peas in summer. As reported, fruits and vegetables are being grown on nearly twice the land as in 1990-91. I can get broccoli, baby corn and many varieties today in Noida’s shops that I used to see in the western countries. The apples coming from the local producers are as juicy as one from California. Mushrooms and soybeans have got into Indian cuisines.

Maharashtra has showcased what can be done on the fruit front, particularly bigger, seedless grapes. Scientists are also helping to develop high yielding better crop varieties.
The Rajasthan Olive Cultivation Limited with a tie up with an Israeli company grows olives and dates. Orange cultivation is already transforming the landscape in Jhalawar. Rajasthan cultivates chillies, coriander and other cash crops such as cumin, fenugreek garlic, fennel and ajwain. Interestingly, Gujarat is trying to grow apples.

With frequent drought and growing shortage of water, the farmers are switching over to new practices that require much less water. Many rice producing states are experimenting with a new technique of direct dry seeding for paddy. Interestingly, the environment gets less methane with this practice. And all this is with no loss of yield. Companies such as PepsiCo and ITC are assisting the farmers in different states. Punjab has developed a new machine that drills the seeds directly into the ground.

Indian farmers at least majority of them still need a lot of handholding, easy availability of quality inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and insecticides, electricity and timely credits from banks, besides the knowledge about the new scientific developments that is useful for him for improving the yield productivity.

Can the governments focus on these aspects rather than offering only the waivers and subsidies that hardly reach to the deserving lots?

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Desis that Make News

With increasing Indian immigrants’ presence in all major countries, the news of their success stories regularly appearing in local or foreign media invite different reactions. Some please rather excite, some make morose, and some even pain badly. But here I mention some that are really inspiring ones.

Forbes has done a story on the most successful CEOs of Indian origin. For many years Indian young men and women are immigrating to US. Normally, they complete their masters or PhDs and take job in US, some in big MNCs. Some reach the top position. PepsiCo chief executive Indra Nooyi inevitably tops the list of what Forbes calls “Eight Indian-Flavoured CEOs” who lead US corporations with revenues of at least $2 billion. Others in the list are Dinesh Paliwal of Harman International, Vikram Pandit of Citigroup, Francisco D’Souza, 40 of Cognizant Technology Solutions, Shantanu Narayen, of Adobe Systems, Surya Mohapatra of Quest Diagnostics, Jai P. Nagarkatti of Sigma-Aldrich, and Abhijit Talwalkar of LSI. However, Forbes very rightly concludes that the number of immigrants who are leading corporate America is still a tiny fraction.

Chidanand Rajghatta based in US has been writing about the Non- Resident Indians for long. His book ‘The Horse that flew‘ was inspiring. I sent a copy to Rakesh. It might have inspired him to switch over to business with Zyom.com.

A Chidanand Rajghatta’s recent article in Times of India- Cresent ‘Desis in DC‘ deals with the success stories of Indians in administration. According to him, there has been an incremental increase in the profile of Indian-Americans in the administration, politics, and public life in successive presidencies from Clinton to Bush to Obama, in keeping with their rising numbers (2.5 million now). Pakistani ambassador to Washington Hussain Haqqani produced 26 as the number of Indian-Americans serving in Obama’s administration. Obama’s has more Indian-Americans in senior positions than any US government – at least a dozen at last count. Two of Obama’s most significant choices were Aneesh Chopra to be the First Chief Technology Officer and Vivek Kundra as the Federal Chief Information Officer, appointments which endorsed the Indian presence in the technology sector. And I feel like agreeing with Chidanand, one day one of the PIOs (persons of Indian origin) could turn out to be a future desi Obama.

The persons of Indian origin are also doing equally good in many fields, be it finance, legal, education and science. To give just one example, 13.7 percent of international patents applications had an inventor or co-inventor with an Indian-heritage name. Many of Indians are doing good work as teachers. CK Prahalad, the management guru, is one such name.

I have been very ambitious and keep on dreaming even now. With eight in family of eleven by now American citizens, I wish one day one of them or some from the next generation will hold an office of importance in US that may bring big name to this family too.
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PS: TOP INDIANS IN THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
Rajiv Shah, USAID administrator; Richard Verma, Assistant secretary for legislative affairs at the state department; RO Khanna, Deputy assistant secretary for domestic operations of the US and Foreign Commercial Service, International Trade Administration; Vivek Kundra, Federal chief information officer; Aneesh Chopra, First chief technology officer; Arun Majumdar, Director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy in the US department of energy; Preet Bharara, US attorney for Southern District of New York; Neal Katyal, Principal deputy solicitor general; Rajesh De, Deputy assistant attorney general, US department of justice; Sonal Shah,Deputy assistant to the President, director, Office of SICP, Domestic Policy Council; Farah Pandith, US special representative to Muslim communities; Anju Bhargava, Member, faith-based advisory council; Rajen Anand, Executive director, policy, USDA Center for Nutrition and Promotion

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