दृष्टिकोण – Indra's Viewpoint

In seventies power outages in West Bengal was horrible. Hindustan Motors was under very tight financial conditions. However, it had to make its first investment on huge Japanese diesel generators of about 20MW capacity. We really felt bad as we wanted instead to investing on production machinery to de-bottleneck certain operations in its manufacturing process. As I find today the power outages are not that frequent in West Bengal, may be because of the closures of most of the manufacturing companies. But in rest of the country particularly in Delhi and NCR region, it is still the biggest of the worries in manufacturing companies and even for the service providers’ facilities.

For the whole country, the current demand of power exceeds supply by a factor of 1.2 times. However, one may be puzzled to find that manufacturing that is heavily energy intensive sector is fastest growing today at 11.2% to boost the GDP growth to respectable level of 9% or more. It is happening because the manufacturing sector has more than 30,000 MW of captive power generating capacity. It’s costlier but at least keep the production facilities running.

The companies are doing its best to find innovative ways to conserve energy and use it in most efficient way. According to a study by the India Brand Equity Foundation, in five years between 2000 and fiscal 2005, sales grew at an average of 11.5% per year, while power and fuel expenses grew only at 7.3% despite steep increases in the price of both utility- supplied power, as well as in price of fuel for in-house generators.
Even the steel sector that is highly energy intensive, despite the presence of large and inefficient pubic sector units, managed to bring down the sales-to-fuel ratio down by nearly 3% during this period.
The Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum points out that ‘India’s energy intensity vis-à-vis GDP growth has been falling and is about half what is used to be in early 70s. Energy consumption per unit of GDP in purchasing power parity term is only 0.19-kilogram oil equivalent per dollar as compared to 0.21 of the world average. And this is what that has made India’s manufacturing sector globally competitive even with very poor infrastructure.

However, it doesn’t say that India can keep on doing the expected growth without solving the power shortages and distribution losses. It must build its mega power plants fast. It must go ahead and exploit the potential of hydropower such as the 3,000 MW Lohit hydel project in Arunachal Pradesh from its river in all the northern states. It must cut down its distribution losses. (A whopping 33% of electricity that is generated is lost or stolen during distribution and transmission. On a world scale, even countries like Cameroon and Nicargua lose less electricity. And according to estimates only around 60% of the power produced is billed, while 45-50% of the overall amount is paid. The losses tripled from about 9% in 1971 to nearly 30% in 2003 when even in Bangladesh, for instance,losses fell from 31% in 1971 to 12% in 2003, almost a third of the losses recorded in neighbouring West Bengal.)

However, the good news comes from the result of the recent bids for the two mega- power projects at Sesan and Mundra. Private companies have own both the projects and not the NTPC that repeatedly fails to meet target set. And very soon the private players will enter in the most economic and preferred source of energy, the hydropower. Unfortunately, the share of hydropower in the total power output has declined from about 50 per cent in 1962 to about 26 per cent now. Of the estimated 1,50,000 Mw hydro- power potential, only 33,600 Mw has been developed so far.

The solution is known. Indian project managers are to act. India needs many more effective project managers such as Sreedharan in Delhi Metro. It must create a world record in completion of power and distribution projects to leave the power problems behind in next five years.

Read “The road ahead”
News ‘Increase in power generation pushes up infrastructure performance’

But let me share with you all the reasons of my happiness today that our great President wished to all the Indians in his greeting for the New Year. I was really happy to find Sushmita as the first to send us an-email greeting from New York. And then I got my usual stuff of happiness from coverage in ‘Newsweek’. The door bell giving the message that Jai has come as promised yesterday to help Yamuna in household works, made me dance It assured that on the first day of the year I shall not be wasting my time on some thing that I don’t relish though I never show it. But the sight of the decorated Shakti Temple gave me an excitement. I first enquired if today happened to be some auspicious day as per Hindu calendar. No, it is only the first day of the year 2007. It is the flexibility that is coming because of globalisation. We are participating in the festivals and enjoying for all and every reason. I wish people keep their faith very personal and don’t be rigid in following the rituals or manifestations. The milk counter of mother Dairy was closed. The attendants had gone to join Bakr-eid prayer. But they were smart enough to outsource the task. I could get my milk from the bread vendor there. Are these not the reasons for great happiness, when right in the morning we faced power outage and a dense depressing fog?

And now my wish list for the year!
 

Noida becomes cleaner, and by some magical power, Mr. Sreedharan gets the metro link of Noida with New Delhi completed in a year breaking ell records.

Golden Quadrilateral and major portions of NSEW Corridors of NHAI get operative and I drive up to my village home on the metalled road promised under Bharat Nirman.

A tough and missionary regulator takes over power sector, cuts down the distribution losses by putting every one behind that by persuasion or the imprisonment, expedites the capacity building through fast track execution of power plants, mega or hydro, and doubles the subsidy to those using alternative power sources of biomass, solar, and wind.

IITs and IIMs open extension centers in capitals of the rest of the states including that of Bihar till new ones are established. Each district headquarter of Bihar establishes an education Hub or SEZ with at least one engineering and medical college, 10 Industrial training Institutes, and 20 good Higher Secondary Schools.

My village gets a healthcare center, and so do the other villages of the country.

India attains 12% GDP growth rate.

India, Pakistan, and China get into a no war treaty, and form an economic block

USA gives up its Dadagiri. Peace returns to Iraq. Let Sadam soul rest in peace.

News: South Korean Ban Ki-moon, the new U.N. secretary-general on Monday, announced his first two appointments.Vijay Nambiar of India, a special adviser to Ban’s predecessor, Kofi Annan, will be his chief of staff

Jayant Narlikar, astrophysicist has written in ‘Truth Imitates Fiction’ how the good fiction writers predicts the things to come in future:

“Fred Hoyle, well known for daring ideas in astrophysics, once proposed that the space between stars is not empty but contains vast clouds of chemical molecules. His research papers on this topic, sent to reputed scientific journals, were rejected. In the 1950s, most astronomers believed that the interstellar space contains hydrogen atoms only.

They could not reconcile their beliefs to the idea that molecular structures can survive in space. Hoyle, faced with a blackout of his ideas, wrote a science fiction novel called The Black Cloud, in which he proposed the concept of vast clouds of molecules occupying interstellar spaces. The novel was immensely successful. Through the 1950s, however, technology had advanced to a level where astronomers could probe the interstellar space with millimetre wavelength radiation received by suitably designed dish antennas.

Analysis of the radiation revealed that it had been emitted by specific molecules in the interstellar clouds, precisely as Hoyle had anticipated in The Black Cloud. Today, the existence of giant molecular clouds is taken for granted. This was a case of sci-fi anticipating real science.

There are other instances of science fiction anticipating real situations, if not contemporarily, at a later stage. Jules Verne’s novel, From Earth to the Moon, anticipated by a century, the reality of Apollo 11 Mission of 1969. Writings of H G Wells, and later by Arthur C Clarke, Isaac Asimov and Ray Bradbury contain perceptive references to situations that developed later.

In a futuristic essay written in 1945, Clarke looked at the possibility of geostationary satellites playing a role in communications technology. This became a reality some three decades later, when man created rockets that could launch satellites in such orbits.”

And it’s heartening when I found Sashi Taroor writing in his lead article ‘Looking to the future with Brand IIT’ about the contribution of Vedas in the scientific endeavour of our ancestors. “After all, the roots of Indian science and technology go far deeper than Nehru. The Rig Veda asserted that gravitation held the universe together 24 centuries before the apple fell on Newton’s head. The Vedic civilisation subscribed to the idea of a spherical earth at a time when everyone else, even the Greeks, assumed the earth was flat.”

Should we not consider our ancient sages who wrote about the ‘Puspak Viman’ and sophisticated weaponry in ‘Maha Bharat’ in the same manner and give credit to their foresights? Why are our leftists intellectuals shy of talking with due respect to those great ancestors as if they only belonged to the families of a particular political party?

Indians must take pride to prove the supremacy in knowledge sector and must never get into trap to be complacent.

With no one at home in evening I switched on TV, as usual the news channel. Footage of Saddam Hussain, the former head of Iraq getting executed was just depressing for any sensible person. He refused to put the hood. His facial expression was calm. It is difficult to imagine what must be going in his mind. A ruler for years, a leader of the nation must not get executed like this. It reminded me of Bhutto’s execution. What an end!

Mob violence over serial killings
Hunted, Hanged
Saddam buried in his hometown: Tribe, family
Hussein Video Grips Iraq; Attacks Go On
On the Gallows, Curses for U.S. and ‘Traitors’
Around the World, Unease and Criticism of Penalty
In Hussein’s Last Minutes, Jeers and a Cry for Calm
Vengeance of the Victors<

Wish you the happiest New Year

Move ahead without fear

Keep open eye and ear

Look all aroud for queer

Enthralling mantras to hear

Use the best of gear

Avoid being at rear

You will find many your near

Enjoy all thr’ the year

A year of hope, loss and triumph</A very very happy new year

58% Indians work in the agricultural sector.
21% is agriculture’s contribution to GDP.
60% farmers own less than 2.5 acres of land.
1.8% is the growth rate of food grain production.
45% marginal farmers are indebted.
40% agri-subsidies go to fertilizer sector.

A Planning Commission approach paper for the 11th Five Year Plan concedes deceleration in agricultural growth from 3.2% between 1980 and 1996-97 to 1.5% subsequently.

The National Sample Survey Organisation estimates that 40% farmers would like to quit farming if they have the option to do so.

Government investment in agriculture has fallen from 14.9% in the earlier Five Year Plans to 5.2% in the current plan.

A Reserve Bank of India report says that bank lending for agriculture has declined from 15.9% in 1990 to 9.8% in 2003.

A Food and Agriculture Organisation study states that if 10 hectares of land are irrigated, employment increases from 8 to 24 persons.

From 1970 to 1999, the average size of holdings declined from 2.28 to 1.55 hectares and the proportion of landless farmers increased from 20% to 35%.

According to a 1999 report of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), an additional Rs100 billion invested in agricultural R&D would increase productivity growth by 6.98%. And every extra million spent on R&D would raise 91 poor people above the poverty line,

A 2005-06 Department of agricultural Research and Education report found a shortfall of 1819 scientists, and 1966 administrative, technical and supportive personnels.

India spends 0.31 % of its GDP on R&D, which is far below industrialized countries spending which ranges from 2.45 to 4.02%. Overall public research funding grew at 3.16% in the 1970s and 7.03% in 1980s, slowing to 4.61% in the 1990s, and further declining with the shift in public expenditure priorities in the post-liberalisation period.

A 2006 IFPRI publication ‘Agricultural R&D in the developing World: Too Little, Too Late’ finds that private research funding has grown at 7.5%, compared with 5.1% in the public sector over the same period accounting for 11% of total spent on agricultural research in 2000.

The FICCI Food and Beverage Study of 2006 estimates that 30% of the farm produce is being wasted every year due to the lack of infrastructure such as cold storages and refrigerated vans for procurement to reduce wastages and ensure freshness.

The yield per hectare for wheat and pulses is 2,600 kg and 600 kg respectively and has fallen from a high of 2,780 kg and 635 kg in FY2000.

India’s population has been rising at 1.6% per annum, which means that the growth in wheat and pulses production must also increase at this minimum rate to ensure that there are no supply bottlenecks.

Production of wheat in FY2005 and FY2006 was 68.4 million tonnes and 69.6 million tonnes, with a peak being attained in FY2000 at 76.4 million tonnes.

At a conservative level, if the post peak production base of FY01 is used as a benchmark when production was 69.7 million tonnes and a growth rate of 1.6% per annum is extrapolated forward, the total production should have been in the vicinity of 75 million tonnes.

At the current level of 68-69 million there is a deficit of around 5.5 million tones ( based on desired growth rate of 1.6%). Stocks had depleted from a high of over 26 million tonnes in March 2002 to 2 million tonnes in March 2006. (So import)

In case of pulses, the production has come down from a peak of 14.9 million tonnes in FY99 and FY04 to just 13.1 million tonnes in FY05 and FY06. Production based on an annual growth rate of 1.6% should be in the region of at least 14.8 million tones, based on a base of 13.4 million tonnes in FY00. (Is not the reason of higher prices?).

Solutions are obvious. India must invest in the agriculture sector, in R&D, in irrigation, intermediary-less sales of produce and effective information centers to provide answers to farmers’ queries. At least, the pending irrigation projects must get priority and get completed. We shall come back on some.

‘Focus on small farmers’<

The Right Act Arvind Kejriwal

IIT engineer turned-bureaucrat-turned-information activist Arvind Kejriwal is one of the heroes among the activists across the country that are engaged in propagating Right to Information law against all resistance from a hierarchy of custodians of information. And the pioneering efforts gained international recognition when Arvind got honoured with Ramon Magsaysay award. But within a year of its enactment, the government attempted to amend the RTI law to deny access to sensitive file notings. Kejriwal played a vital role in mobilising public pressure to drop the proposed amendment. Kejriwal’s latest initiative is to help the Bihar government set up a call centre to enable illiterate villagers to access information. I keep on following media report on Arvind, as he is known to my eldest son from his IIT days.

Pistachio King Lajpat Rai Munger

Lajpat Rai Munger got caught while taking a bribe of Rs 500, when he was head constable in Punjab Police in 50s. And then happened the transformation. He left Punjab Police in 1954 and managed to reach America, the land of opportunities, in 1966. And the metamorphosis and resounding success as a businessman followed. From an ordinary menial worker, he switched to a small business. Today, Munger owns 8,000 acres of land in California and is the largest grower of pistachios in the world. He is also the biggest blueberries baron in California too. The 90-year-old Lajpatji came back from the US early this year to donate a whopping Rs 20 crore to set up an engineering college in Hoshiarpur, that to him is his “penance”. Here is one example that many can emulate.

Abhayanand- A Police Officer, A Teacher Too

Abhayanand, a 1977 batch IPS officer currently posted as ADG (HQ), is back in active life of a policeman making a difference in Bihar. He is one of the key persons behind the 5,000-odd convictions in 2006 in Bihar. Even high and mighty MLAs and MPs in Bihar are scared, as the cases against them have been suddenly reopened. Besides being an officer, Abhayanand ji is a teacher too and the founder of Super30 Institute. Along with Anand Kumar the maths wizard, Abhayanandji provides coaching to 30 IIT-aspirants of whom 28 cracked the IIT-JEE this time. And the students are the poor ones, including Dalits who cannot afford tuitions of the professional coaching institutes. Abhayanand is an example of double role, and one doing both with excellent success rates.</POS

We could decorate our Christmas tree in a fairly decent manner. And surprisingly, I found many of the shops in all the small and big markets sell items relating to Christmas. Is it the universalisation of all major festivities without any link to any religious faiths in India? Naturally the media have been playing the biggest role. And from Prayag to Puri, you see this happening everywhere.

India has nearly 200 national research laboratories, an equal number of research establishments in the central sectors, another 1300-odd recognized R&D units in the industrial sector, besides the R&D facilities with India’s university system that constitutes of 237 universities, 39 ‘deemed’ universities and 10 institutes of national importance. DRDO and CSIR have established its reputations.

India’s institutions add around 200,000 people to the science and technology pool every year that is already the world’s largest. What are all these institutes and its manpower engaged in? Are the facilities available being utilizing to the optimum? Can it be made more efficient and productive to add more revenue or to create more employment?

NASSCOM estimated the global KPO market to reach $17 billion by 2010, and is confidant that India will bag about 70% of this business.

However, the NASSCOM scope of KPO considers only the traditional areas such as financial processes, legal work, human resources, in which India is already doing pretty good business. Why can’t India leverage its scientific establishments to pitch in the task and join KPO providers group that can multiply the Nasscom revenue estimates many a times?

As reported, India can’t compete with China that invest $136 billion on R&D. But how do the majority of the Indian scientists compare with their Chinese counterparts in output of researches and its quality? And how can they be made more motivated in their work? Why can’t the scientists community improve their performance to match that of Chinese?

A recent research on the world’s top 1,000 R&D spenders, consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton identified smart spenders, who spent a smaller percentage of revenues on R&D than industry peers (over a five-year period), but still performed better. There was one Indian company in that list of 94 – Tata Motors. “Indian engineers, with an unbeatable combination of skill and frugality, may show the way ahead. Indian companies are spending less, but are getting more research done per dollar spent.” But is it true for the scientists and research workers in government institutions?

Over 500 of India’s largest listed companies put together spent less than a seventh of what Ford Motor. Though a loss-making automaker, Ford spent last year on its R&D $8 billion that happens to be the world’s largest. These 500-plus companies put together would rank 75 in the list of the world’s largest R&D spenders (put out by the Financial Times in its annual R&D Scoreboard). It’s a poor show. Ranbaxy Laboratories, the India’s largest spender, would not make in the global top 300. India must spend more, and it is happening too. While only three companies spent more than Rs 100 crore on research four years ago, today there are 14. Research investments have grown from Rs 2,405 crore to Rs 5,333 crore in that period. And now, 16 companies have the guts to pour over 10 per cent of revenues into research.

And interestingly, the centre of gravity in research is shifting to India and China. According to Booz Allen Hamilton, growth of corporate R&D in the two countries (17 per cent) outpaced North America (5.2 per cent) and Europe (2.3 per cent) with more and more of MNCs establishing its R&D centres in India and China.

In the past four years, the automotive industry’s (excluding component makers) spending on R&D has increased from Rs 243 crore to Rs 954 crore. The industry also invests 1.5 per cent of revenues in R&D that was just 0.68 per cent four years ago.And one can see that in new platforms on Indian roads like Tata Motors’ Indica and Ace, and the forthcoming Rs 1-lakh car, and Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M) Scorpio.

However, it is unfortunate that the huge facilities of R&D is neither used for BPO nor for developing some real useful products that can revolutionise the quality of life of the majority of Indians.

But more surprising is the indifference of our media that hardly covers even the excellent success stories of our scientists.

The Economist published ‘Carmaking in India-A different route’ on Dec 13th 2006. While China’s carmakers copy, India’s are inventing.

China, R&D Superpower?
Designing for India’s Consumers
Spare the good professor such agony
Crisis in science

On this holy day, I came across two stories that try to change the prevailing notions about the two great persons that the world produced.

The Times of India published a story by David Leafe, ‘Did Jesus have a secret family?’, from Daily Mail on December 24,2006.

Deep in the Judean desert, in a remote part of the Holy Land that has changed little since Biblical times, stands an ancient Greek Orthodox monastery with a highly unusual portrait of the Holy Family in its chapel. Showing young Jesus being carried on the shoulder of Joseph, while his mother Mary rides behind them. Next to Jesus, Mary and Joseph is a mysterious fourth figure – a young man with a golden halo who is wearing a simple dark robe and carrying his belongings on a stick. is name is James and, a controversial Channel 4 documentary to be screened on Christmas Day has made a story out of that. According to the programme, Jesus did have a hidden family. Not a wife and daughter, but brothers and sisters: James, Joses, Simon, Jude (sometimes referred to as Judas), Salome and young Mary. These siblings apparently played a key role in founding Christianity, but their teachings proved too dangerous for the church. The documentary claims the church tried to eradicate them from history by rewriting Christ’s story, fabricating his birthplace, falsely crediting him with the Lord’s Prayer and inventing the idea that his mother Mary remained a virgin lifelong.

Dr Robert Beckford, a committed Christian and reader in theology at Oxford Brookes University is the author of the programme. According to Dr Beckford, the Bible supports his arguments.

The St Gerasimos monastery houses that intriguing painting of the Holy Family that dates back many hundreds of years and clearly shows the relationship of James to Jesus. Dr Beckford believes that the early clerics suppressed such portraits because they knew these were Jesus’s full-blood brothers and sisters. The same censorship is apparent in the Gospels. Both Matthew and Mark mention Jesus’s family briefly, but although the Gospel of Luke drew heavily on these earlier works, it does not mention any other children of Mary and Joseph. Dr Beckford maintains that the reasons for this censorship can be found in a vicious power struggle among the early Christians in the years after Christ’s death in approximately 33AD. The Gospel of John suggests that Jesus asked his disciple Peter to take care of his flock and, indeed, it is Peter who is traditionally regarded as the first leader of the Christian church.

And then Mr. Singh passed on to me last evening the latest ‘Outlook’ that has a story by Rajmohan Gandhi, the grandson of Mahatma Gandhi, Bapu’s Human Tryst’. It deals with the passionate love relationship the Mahatma had with a fiery beauty from Bengal called Sarladevi.

It was the one relationship in his life that even a compulsive confessor like Gandhi barely spoke about, keeping her deliberately out of his otherwise candid autobiography. His grandson reconstructs the story in his forthcoming biography, ‘Mohandas: A True Story of a Man, His People and an Empire.’

Why are these stories written? Does it serve any purpose? The views may be inferences from some circumstantial evidences in letters and painting, but may not be the truth. Even what the eyes see many times and try to infer or conclude are not truths. Are these stories created to get a fame to become a thinker who went out of the traditionally accepted notions? Why should we hurt the feelings of millions and millions of human beings who worship them as lords?

1550
2006-12-24 06:29:44
IIT Alumni 2006 Global Conference- My Views
The President inaugurated the Pan IIT 2006 convention in Mumbai on Dec 23, 2006 that will discuss for 3 days the initiatives and projects to transform India with focus on governance, knowledge economy, entrepreneurship, poverty eradication and advanced technologies. An ad says, ‘Participants include over 40 IITians who have contributed towards nation-building.’ A question flashed in my mind and morosed me. Have the rest of the thousands of IITians passed out from IITs not contributed? Many IITians could have become more distinguished ones, if the circumstances in which they worked would have been more conducive. If I just start thinking about some of my own friends, each performed differently. Some who were more distinguished in the performance in IIT couldn’t do that great in real life. Dhingra, Budhani, Shikhar, and Agrawal couldn’t become distinguished. Why can’t the conference such as this one look into the factors that make a person with all the potentials just an average one? How can the system produce the ‘distinguished’ ones more and in abundance?

And if the IITians have some real spareable resources, why should they not help the schools and colleges, and their own village and small towns that they came from before joining IITs?

Next year I shall be celebrating the golden jubilee of my admission in IIT, Kharagpur in 1957. It gives me an immense happiness that I am still continuing to contribute in my own ways with small little ideas in my writings.

IITs must add more value to social grid: Kalam
Tharoor at the Pan IIT 2006 meet in Mumbai
George Soros participated in Pan IIT 2006

1549
2006-12-22 21:26:23
End of Poverty-Some Questions
As per the figure coming from different sources, 28% of the Indians are below the poverty line. Let us look at the definitions.

Official estimates are based on a norm of 2,400 calories per capita per day for rural areas and 2,100 calories per capita per day for urban areas. These calories level, if translated into money for food, means, anyone earning more than Rs 600, as of 2005, is considered above poverty line.

The World Bank defines extreme poverty as living on less than US$1 (PPP) per day, and moderate poverty as less than $2 a day. And what it means in simple word is the dismal living condition. According to the World Food programme, nearly 50% of the world’s hungry live in India. Another report says 35% of world’s poor live in India. Is it not an abysmal situation, extremely worrying, and sufficient to make you as Indian look a pygmy?

What is this number? Is it the number of individuals or households? If it is the number of individuals, does it include all children as well as old men who can’t work? If it is households, does it consider the income of all the earning members correctly? Are the people hesitant to give the correct figure just as some do to escape the income tax?

I see all around and find in households below BPL, more than one member of the family contributes to the overall earning of the household. For example, I have an assistant to help my wife in household works. We pay him good money plus all the food and clothing and other expenses plus some more tips at times. His mother also works, while his father plies a riksha. I don’t know if these facts are recorded in data collected. If all the earnings coming in family are concerned the household must fall in ‘moderate poverty’ or may be a little better.

My only apprehension is that the system must not encourage people to keep themselves in BPL category. All the schemes must empower them to be proud citizen and encourage them to explore all means to improve their earnings.

Let us look at the aspect about going to sleep without food. Almost 70% of so-called BPL households live in rural India and most of them have dwelling of their own. This is a boon, but one will have to work hard to exploit every bit of it. The household can grow some vegetables such as different kinds of pumpkins that grow as bumper crop. It can grow on the roof of the house. They can also easily plant some fruit bearing trees such as jackfruit that can serve them as some nutritious dishes in their daily intake and may earn some extra earnings too. Additionally, the households can also have some animals such as buffalos, cows, goats and poultry that can produce the nutritious content of the food requirements. Why should the household depend so much on the doles from the government? Why should they not look into possibility of growing all that they can?

I know many will not agree to this. However, I am of strong opinion that unless the people are empowered to find their own way to earn their living they shall go on getting more and more lazy and dependent that can serve only the politicians.

Read T N Ninan: How to be `inclusive`

1548
2006-12-22 05:07:54
India’s Manmade Power Crisis
India dreams to be the major global manufacturing hub with labour intensive industries-small and big, spread all throughout the country. And almost every one, be it the Prime Minister, or the Finance Minister, or the head of Planning Commission, agrees that manufacturing can only play the role of saviour for the teeming millions youths in India.

Is it is possible without having sufficient capacity in power generation and efficient transmission and distribution? The answer is simply a ‘no’.

The country must have abundance of power to reach right up to all the villages so that manufacturing can go everywhere to engage the people productively. Is it possible to have the power in abundance and soon? Perhaps here also the answer is a plain ‘yes’.

Recently concluded Nuclear deal with US for civil use, mainly for generating the clean power had maximum media coverage. But it is not going to happen tomorrow or on short term. Instead India must follow the power projects based on traditional fossil fuels that have already been conceived.

Why has India not overcome the pwer shortage till date? The answer is simple. It is plain failure of the execution of the projects in time. The majority of power generation is in public sector. And the public sector starts big projects, but never completes it in scheduled time. The projects of private sector also suffer due to many controls. For example, Reliance Dadri Project is one such.
And how will India achieve the sufficiency in power in future? India must have to do away the red tapes causing the delays. It must complete a power project that it takes up, at the most in 3-4 years following the best world standard. And that is doable.

NTPC remains the main power plant builder for India. It must become a 1,00,000 MW company. Many private players are also now in the field with Reliance Energy and Tata Power as main. Many other domestic as well foreign players are ready to jump or are already in the race, as it was evident in the recent bids for the mega power projects.

BHEL remains the sole major provider of power plant equipment. Many are sceptical about its ability to maintain the supply to all the projects in process. Naturally, either BHEL adds on its capacity by expansion or acquisition, or the entrepreneurs will go for alternative import route. And the government must not put any restriction. This is not the time to encourage the growth of an enterprise, as it is domestic and hold the growth of the country. The task is decidedly onerous for the suppliers of power plants manufacturers if India is to achieve the target of adding 66,463 mw to its generation capacity in the 11th Plan Period and another 86,500 mw in the 12th Plan Period.

And if the two warring ministers wish so, NTPC can go additionally for the manufacture of plant and equipment, and BHEL can go for setting up power plants on its own in natural process of expansion and diversification. But let it be decided by the CEOs and their technical teams of the two companies rather than the ministers.

Can India then add 1,50,000 MW of generation capacity in next 5-8 years? It must. The capacity must have a good lead over the requirement. Let all the private power companies be encouraged to go full blast. As reported, REL has lined up close to a dozen projects to take the company’s installed capacity to around 18,000 mw by 2012. Tata Power has similar ambitions. Many in the country are having similar ambitions to be a major player in power sector. The government and its bureaucrats must facilitate in all manner in cutting down the time for the initiation and the completion of the projects.

Two ultra mega projects of 4,000 MW each are already approved. Hyderabad-based Lanco Infratech, in association with the Singapore-based Globleq, has won the bid for the pithead project, Sasan in Madhya Pradesh by offering a price of Rs 1.19 per unit. Tata power emerged the winner for Mundra in Gujarat. Tata Power’s tariff bid for the imported coal-based Mundra power project was the lowest at Rs 2.26 a unit. Tata Power has joined hands with Siemens and Doosan for equipment procurement and construction. Number of companies participating with a total of 16 bids for the two projects brings hope. There is a 14-month limit for financial closure and commencement of construction too. And many more of the mega power projects are in pipeline.

The significant decisions for locating the power plants near a port or at pitheads are already in place. It will eliminate the delays in coal movement between the coalmines and the power plants.

The efforts are on for all avenues to kill this bug. Tamil Nadu and Gujarat are leading a revolution in renewable energy installations and generation, especially from wind. Major wind turbine manufacturing companies are making investments to manufacture renewable energy equipment. Investments are taking place in solar energy, co-generation, biomass and biogas-based power projects.

Naturally, parallel actions are also directed for de-bottlenecking of the transmission and distribution by cutting down the huge losses too. Power conservation is another area that must get a lot of attention.

One can think of an India with surplus power in next five years. And it must happen.

Read “Will ultra-mega power projects deliver?”

It’s boom time for equipment makers with the…Power sector on high voltage

1547
2006-12-21 16:40:10
Next Bill Gates From China or India
Chidanand Rajghatta provides this information in one of his report in ‘The Times of India’, Deceember21, 2006. A cartoon on a blog run by 463 Communications had a headline that read: ‘American Say Next Bill Gates is currently Studying Math in Beijing.’

A new survey of Internet Attitudes in the US released by Zogby International and 463 Communications showed how Asia’s tech ability is getting into American minds.

Nearly half of all Americans (49%) believe that the next great technology leader will come from either China (26.7%) or Japan (22.4%). Only 21% believe he or she could come from the US, while a surprising 13% backed India as the next home of a prospective Billji. The other two of BRIC- Russia (2.1%) and Brazil (0.4%) were also among the choices.

However, higher-income group of Americans ($1,00,000 salary and above) were more bullish about American prospects, listing US first (27.6%), followed by India (25.9%) and then China (23.1%).

Naturally for those higher up the economic ladder, who are more in contact with Indians as colleagues in offices or in business dealings, saw almost as much promise in India as in the US and China.

But I feel India has already its Bill Gates who needs to be emulated by more and more Indians and may be American entrepreneurs of tomorrow in US. Dhirubhai Ambani and Lakshmi Mittal were no way less than Bill Gates in their arena.