Indian Manufacturing at Crossroad

The manufacturing sector is seeing activity build up in almost all segments. West is looking at India a source for manufacturing too.

According to the recently provided data, the estimate for GDP growth at constant prices is 9.2 per cent for 2006-07. It is exciting because it is upon a base year growth of 9 per cent in 2005-06. The advance estimates has pegged manufacturing growth at 11.3 per cent, against 9.1 per cent a year ago, and services at 11.2 per cent (9.8 per cent a year ago). Indian manufacturing is growing at an average of 10% with growth touching 12-14% in some months. 12% was the target recommended for manufacturing sector by the NMCC to attain a double-digit growth rate to generate sufficient enough employment. Is it happening? Has the manufacturing sector changed its course to have growth with employment too or it is still a jobless growth? And can this growth of 12% be sustained?

India’s manufacturing sector can grow faster if it can create for and cater to its domestic market as well if it can create a global market for its products. Auto sectors are providing the lead where the sector is pushing fast in both the market. Domestic market is booming and export obligations are also being met. Auto component sector is feeding its domestic OEMs as well global clients. The boom can be further expanded with new innovative products at the right price. India can keep lead through its innovative products such as the Tata Motors Rs 1 lakh or a smaller smarter SUV. The success of ACE- the Minitruck of Tata Motors was an example. Similar approach by the manufacturers in all sectors of mass market will succeed. But auto sector may not help in job creations in number that is expected or desired to absorb the millions of unskilled and semiskilled unemployed men and women of India.

Indian entrepreneurs must establish many more new manufacturing units, produce many more types of innovative products, and create customers for them in the domestic as well as global market. Why can’t the textiles and apparel sector grow manifold? Why should India export cotton?

Why does India’s leather industry continue to post lower growth rates with thee largest source of raw material in the country? Is it because the entrepreneurs of the upper castes of the majority community still hesitate to go in the business?

It is the taste for the creative strength of the people of India. And naturally we will have to answer many pertinent questions.

Can India leverage its intellectual capabilities, be creative and integrate innovation into manufacturing?

Can India’s innovation follow a very different model focused on providing solutions for the masses?

Can the innovations and technologies be directed to solve the problem of acute poverty spread all over the country?

As reported, a company manufacturing automotive seats has been able to use the Poly Urethane used for manufacturing seats to make a 30% cheaper Jaipur Foot. As Newsweek reported, Rajesh Jain has come out a cost effective solution to use TV as PC.

Can it be emulated in many more areas?

Innovation goes beyond all boundaries or limits and works across sectors and applications. Indian Innovation Foundation has many such examples from the grassroots’ level? Why can’t the whole lot of people from other strata of Indian society join the innovation movement of India taking examples from those illiterate village scientists or technocrats that Prof Anil Gupta of IIM has found out? I wish the media had been covering their stories more widely.

Further, the manufacturing sector is best placed to attain inclusive growth- the need of the day. And innovation and entrepreneurship can only provide the large scale expansion of the manufacturing.

Let there be no confusion that the manufacturing and services sector together are expected to reinforce each other in India’s endeavour to become a developed country.
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RURAL EUREKA!

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Bihar Getting Emulated Now

Here are some news reports on some of the strength of its people, the recent actions taken by the new government of Bihar, and the performance of some institutions that other states may emulate, and the people of Bihar origin may feel proud about:

1.According to senior economist of World Bank, Deepak Ahluwalia, ‘Bihar excels in the production of certain agricultural produce like maize, potato, fruits, dairy products and vegetables. The cost of production of potato, dairy products, maize, fruits and vegetables is much less in Bihar in comparison to other states. For example, though Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal are leading potato-producing states, the cost of production in Bihar is much less compared to both these states. Even the cost of production of maize in Bihar is much low in comparison to the international cost. This agro-produce could easily find place in the world markets if there is a proper coordination between different agencies.’

I am sure the government of Bihar would have taken notice of these statements and taken actions. I have been writing that if West Bengal can export potatoes, why can’t Bihar do that. But it must be done to make the farmers richer rather than the intermediaries.

2.Bihar is the first state to start coupons to beat corruption in rations shops. Corruption and malpractice are rampant in the public distribution system (PDS): ration-card holders are often turned away from fair-price shops they are assigned to and large quantities of grain and kerosene meant for the poor get sold in the open market. Bihar has launched a coupon system aimed at checking malpractice and encouraging better service at ration shops distributing essentials to below poverty line (BPL) families. Under this scheme, the BPL families would be given coupons for one year to avail food grain and kerosene at subsidized rates every month from the PDS shops. With coupons, beneficiaries can go to another fair-price shop if they are turned away at one. Every month each BPL family is entitled for 10 kg wheat, 25 kg rice and five litres of kerosene. These coupons will be distributed through elected gram sambas. The government had already updated the BPL list through a survey involving students and schoolteachers, besides government officials, across the state last year. As reported, the Planning Commission has reportedly decided to emulate the ‘coupon scheme’ and recommend this scheme for all other states in the country. Will the dealers, as they have unusually fertile brains, find some way to corrupt the innovative system too, even if it means collaboration with the beneficiaries for mutual advantages?

3.From January 29 the state information commission has set up call centres in Patna to help the public get information. One simply has to make a call and provide his/her address and the type of information he/she wants to get. The call centre will then pass on the application to the department concerned for the information. The commission also has a website, http://www.bsic.co.in. Thus even an illiterate person can get the information with just a phone call. I again wish all the information regarding the ownership of land in the state and status of all the judicial cases must be made available on the website for each village. The state must aim to provide an Internet kiosk for every the panchayat and at next stage for every village. Many NGOs and corporate are providing assistance for the kiosk. The state must take advantage of the opportunity.

4.Though it is unbelievable, the Bihar School Examination Board (BSEB) has achieved a unique feat of completing the secondary examination process in the shortest time in the country. It completed the process in just seven days, way ahead of the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE), which took 24 days, and other state school boards. Bihar also fared well in the number of days taken for declaration of results. Bihar took 46 days to finish third, behind West Bengal Board of Madarsa Education (27 days)

According to the Council of Boards of School Education (COBSE) that analyzed the data made available by 25 boards out of 32 boards, in terms of pass percentage, Bihar finished seventh with 70.07 per cent, which is significantly higher than the national average of 63.36 per cent. Bihar, however, finished sixth in terms of pass percentage of girls, with 71.29 per cent. In terms of pass percentage of Scheduled Caste students, Bihar was ranked seventh, with 62.73 per cent.

At the senior secondary level (Plus Two), however, Bihar was ranked 14th both in terms of number of days taken for completing the examination process and declaration of results.

On the education front, Bihar is to go miles. The teachers, particularly of rural Bihar, are to play an important role. They must get themselves qualified for doing the job properly, and the state must not involve them in non-teaching assignments, that are becoming the excuse. A carrot and stick policy for teachers is the need to improve the situation. The state must also get all the institutions accredited and audited by the reputed outside agencies.

If the figures can be believed the number of convictions in last year has been significant, and so is the speed of some police actions. If the bureaucrats so wish, and that they must, for a change, they can transform Bihar into ‘Booming Bihar’.

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Bihar CM on how to tackle poverty
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Destination Patna-Old ties, new bond</

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Varanasi Vandalism -Some Lessons

Some news of the students’ community shocks me and some questions automatically crop up. Who are responsible for their behaviours? Is it because of the political necessity?

How should one react when one sees the whole episode live? I heard the Uttar Pradesh governor suggesting the students to learn English too, if they wish to have ambitions of a good career after completing the education. “Exclusive Sanskrit education is beneficial only for those who want to become priests or Sanskrit teachers,”

T.V. Rajeswar was addressing the convocation of Sampoornand Sanskrit University in Varanasi. While he described Sanskrit as the “pride of India”, the governor departed from the text to remind students they also need to know English. “If you want to succeed professionally, earn Rs 2-3 lakh a month or go abroad… you must be proficient in English. If you only learn Sanskrit, you will remain cut off from the rest of the world and continue to live in the bullock-cart age.”

The students went out on rampage protesting against the statement and even demanded an apology from Rajeswar and his resignation. Where was the governor wrong? The students are ignorant about the reality of life, and must take advices from the older generation with open mind. No one can force it on a Sanskrit scholar if he doesn’t want to learn English. But when the same person faces an interview from, say a university of US for a Sanskrit teacher for Americans, he would never be selected if he does not know English. How will he teach Sanskrit to English knowing students if he does know English?

I don’t know how the same students would react once the recommendation of National Knowledge Commission to start teaching English from primary class itself is implemented.
And in Patna, I saw an irate mob of Patna University (PU) students belonging to different student organisations storming the PU office after breaking the main entrance gate as well as the inner gates. They did all for increasing the gap in university examinations. Bihar has already poor image about the sanctity of the certificates and degrees it offer. Why shouldn’t the parents take care of their wards? How can a government and a college stop such vandalism?

The student community all over the country must take some responsibility to draw the attention of the authority about the drawbacks in their teaching facilities and participate in national building by preparing themselves as responsible and employable candidates. They must shun the militant and damaging agitation. It will not fetch them anything on short term as well long term.

As reported, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee has often been heard saying,. “Shudhu Bangla shikhle cholbe na (Just Bengali won’t do)” in his urgency to put Bengal on the development map. He wants Bengali students to get the fluency in English as the Chinese are doing in China. Will Mulayam do that?

Perhaps, the students of Bihar and Eastern UP have a little more responsibilty for building a better image of the region.
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And the result- 163-year lab lag with China

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The Country Wins over Caste

I happened to find the Megasthenes’ ‘Indika’ courtesy Google. Megasthenes was in Magadh at the time of Chnadra Gupta Maurya. Indika is his writings about the social and political conditions of the country at that time. He has talked on the caste system prevailing at that time. He writes, “The whole population of India is divided into seven castes.” Over the centuries, those seven castes have expanded over to perhaps 700 or 7000, and that is the weakest point of India with a potential to weaken the nation to any degree that can hold it from competing with the global powers. No religious leader of the majority community could realize the menace that the caste system could cause, and so didn’t denounce the system and tried to abolish it.

I had a hope that the younger generation with education would drop this way of identifying themselves. Growing intimacies without any caste bias would mean more and more inter-caste marriages and end of the horrendous system deciding one’s characteristics based on caste. I got the shock of my life, when I went through a recent report.

According to a BBC poll, the first for a nationwide ‘attitudes’ survey conducted by an international agency, that at a time when much of the world appears to have a view alternately on ”emerging India” or ”overheating India” Indians still seem to have caste firmly on their minds in one way or the other, even though leading sociologists have long argued that urbanization and industrialization has helped break down caste-barriers. 55% said the ”caste system is a barrier to social harmony.

The survey was conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan. The survey comes as part of BBC’s ongoing ‘India Rising’ week of special programming that charts changes in different sectors of the Indian economy.

Some other interesting findings of the survey were:

Indians overall, seven in 10 exhibited a positive sense of identity by agreeing to the statement, ”I am proud to be an Indian.” The view was uniform across all age, income groups. However, the view differed among religious groups with Christians (73%) the proudest; Hindus (71%) close behind and Muslim pride in being Indian languishing at 60%. Why are the Christians the most proud lot? Why are the Muslims so much behind? Is it because of madrassa education or appeasement policies of political system?

52% said ”being a woman is no barrier to success”

Just under half of all Indians (48%) declared they would rather ”work for a private company than for the government.”

Six in 10, or 58% said they believed India’s security is ”more in danger from other Indians than from foreigners”

47% said ”corruption is a fact of life which we should accept as the price of doing business.” But a cheering 45% of 18- to 24-yearold Indians said they were less tolerant of corruption than the older generation.

On religious belief, 50% said ”people don’t take their religion seriously”;

40% lamented that ”young Indians have lost touch with their heritage.”

60% think India should be a political power

60% believe the country should be a military superpower

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India’s Economy Is on the Verge of Overheating
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Disturbing Developments

Muslims under the banner of Jamaiit-e-Ulem-Hind organized protest in Singur, by now famous as the location of Tata Motors’ prestigious car project.

Delhi saw a disturbing initiative- a community- based mobilization led by Muslim clerics to protest against FDI in retail sector, as the global retail giants are one from US and UK.

If these giants are threats to India, how can it be threat only to a community?

Are not the clerics taking a little too much of liberty of the freedom to protest in democracy?

Is this not a dangerous signal for the so trumpeted secular country?

Is it something to do with the policies and pronouncements of special reservations, funds, and Islamic banks for this minority community?

Is it not inviting some unnecessary irritants for the country and its hard working people engaged in the task of making the country a global economic force?

But what can we expects from a national party that is dynastic and full of sycophants that you can see in the photograph where a minister is seeking blessings of the Goddess Sonia?

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Need to report on minority hiring, all Central depts told</

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Changing Perception of Bihar

Nitish is getting into the task of changing the perception about Bihar in the people’s mind that matters to go for a big development. More of the remarks made by the people of all classes from Bihar are now positive.

At least some in print media are coming out with the success stories of Bihar that makes difference.

India Today, Feb 5 issue, has rated Nitish Kumar highly again. In the 13th Mood of the Nation poll to assess the performance of the chief ministers of their own states as well as to rate them nationwide, Nitish Kumar is a clear winner. “After 15 months in office, there are no signs of voters’ fatigue with his Government. While he shares the top slot nationally with Modi, within the state, his ratings have zoomed, from 29 per cent in our last poll five months ago, to 81 per cent. The sharp rise in his endorsement comes as no surprise. A detailed analysis shows that Nitish’s acceptability levels owe largely to his belief that good governance is the perfect antidote to the decade and half of stagnation and lawlessness under the Lalu-Rabri regimes. The results are already evident. Be it electricity, roads, healthcare, primary education, transport, communications and even policing, more people think that things are much better now than they were six months ago.” Business Today recently (January, 28) too covered a positive story, ‘Nitis Kumar’s Mission Impossible’. ‘Chief Minister is working hard (15-16 hours every day). And going by ground realities, the situation is actually getting better. In last one year, more than 1,000 hardened criminals have been awarded life sentences. Hundreds of brick kilns have mushroomed along the banks of Ganga. The occupancy at the cinema halls during night shows is more than 80%.’ However, few reporters in some newspapers appear to have decided to publish only the image spoilers.

I keep my tap on Bihar through my dialogues with my relatives in Bihar and various websites including the one of Bihar government. I have some concerns based on past experiences.
I was going through the list of 66 new investment proposals worth more than Rs 26,000 crores that Bihar government has received and approved. Unfortunately, the information in the list is very sketchy, poorly arranged and is not being updated regularly giving the real time status. I personally feel the government must look into the proposals a little more seriously. The fast increase in number of proposals may be allusive. The government must evaluate the sincerity of the entrepreneurs too. As it appears many traders from Kolkata are trying to be in the investment game for some vested interest. I wish I were wrong. The government must provide all the assistance in shortest possible time, but must also take commitments on the time frame of all the stages of the projects and keep a regular track on the progress. I assume that at least the proposals approved in February-March 2006 would have moved forward. Though the maximum numbers of proposals are about sugar industry and medical colleges, but it must move fast to implementation stage. The engineer CM must also see that the entrepreneurs complete the projects in no more than 3-4 years.

Some Priority Projects For Bihar

I am of a strong view that Bihar government must identify some prestigious 20 projects of strategic importance with high impact on growth and monitor its progress on regular basis. According to me, some of the projects are:
Government Projects- central and State
1. Expressways under Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) project
2. The East-West corridor project
3. The NHDP, Phase III A, with all important roads connecting the state’s capital to different towns of the state.
4. Indian Institute of Technology, Bihar
5. All Indian Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS)
6. Bharat Nirman- roads
7. Bharat Nirman- rural electrification
8. International University, Nalanda
9. Chanakya Law University, Patna
10. Railway’s Axle manufacturing plant
11. Thermal power plant, Nabinagar
Private Projects
1. Indian Gasohol Ltd-10 mega ethanol plants with cogeneration
2. Mahindra & Mahindra group’s food processing plant
3. Sonalika Tractors’ a tractor plant.
4. Max Healthcare’s multispecialty hospital

The good news is that the priority sector is identified. The government is concentrating on sugar and maize based industries. Private investors had shown interest in setting up sugar mills with ethanol and cogeneration and the state government has also decided to hand over the sugar mills under state control to the private sector for their revival. As priority, the government must work on the abandoned factories, and take quick decisions, even if necessary with help of some ordinances.

Bihar must work on power plants on priority. Perhaps the route will be through private investment, and alternate energy resources. It can provide special subsidy to solar energy and biomass units, perhaps more to the deprived class in rural Bihar. If Karunanidhi can offer TVs, at least Bihar can do this.

The government must get proactive in approaching the reputed industrialists at the highest levels to make them come to Bihar’s assistance. But at least a dairy unit at every district headquarter is minimum that it can do itself.

My appeal to the government is more to have its websites more user-friendly and responsive. It must provide the e-mail addresses of ministers. It must also provide the status of the projects undertaken.

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Food vs. Fuel

In excitement to go green, many things may happen. Here is a case when pigs may get starved because of biofuels coming out of corn.

Greg Boerboom raises 37,000 pigs a year on his farm in Marshall, Minn. Those hogs eat a lot of corn-10 bushels each from weaning to sale. In past years he has bought feed for about $2 a bushel. But since late summer, average corn prices have leapt to nearly $4 a bushel. To reduce feed costs, he sells his pigs before they reach the normal 275 pounds, and keeps them warmer so they don’t devour more food fighting off the cold.

In the U.S., last year’s harvest was 10.5 billion bushels, the third-largest crop ever. But instead of going into the maws of pigs or cattle or people, an increasing slice of that supply is being transformed into fuel for cars. The roughly 5 billion gallons of ethanol made in 2006 by 112 U.S. plants consumed nearly one-fifth of the corn crop. If all the scores of factories under construction or planned go into operation, fuel will gobble up no less than half of the entire corn harvest by 2008.

Corn is caught in a tug-of-war between ethanol plants and food, one of the first signs of a coming agricultural transformation and a global economic shift. Ever since our ancestors in the Fertile Crescent first figured out how to grow grains, crops have been used mainly to feed people and livestock. But now that’s changing in response to the high price of oil, the cost in lives and dollars of ensuring a supply of petroleum imports, and limits on climate-warming emissions of fossil fuels. Farms are energy’s great green hope.

Will it happen the same way for sweet loving Indians, when a good proportion of sugarcane juice is used to produce ethanol in our sugar mills?
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Once a dream fuel, palm oil may be an eco-nightmare
Guide to alternative fuels

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Automotive Mission Plan 2006-2016- Some Salient Points

The Ministry of Heavy Industry of India has come out with its ‘Automotive Mission Plan’ 2006-2016. India intends to emerge as the destination of choice in the world for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of US$ 145 billion accounting for more than 10% of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 million people by 2016. While going through the document, I felt like sharing the salient features of the industry in which I have kept my interest alive till date.

India is emerging as one of the world’s fastest growing passenger car markets and second largest two-wheeler manufacturer. It is home for the largest motorcycle manufacturer and fifth largest commercial vehicle manufacturer. The industry is producing about 13 lakhs passenger vehicles, 4 lakhs commercial vehicles, 76 lakhs two wheelers and about 3 lakhs tractors. The automobile industry has achieved a turn over of US $ 28 billion and the auto component industry has reached a turn over of US $ 10 billion. The Indian tyre industry has registered a turn over of almost US $ 3 billion.

The Indian Automotive Industry after de-licensing in July 1991 has grown at a spectacular rate on an average of 17% for last few years. The industry has now attained a turnover of Rs. 1,65,000 crores (34 billion USD, assuming 1$ = Rs. 46) and an investment of Rs. 50,000 crores. Over of Rs. 35,000 crores of investment is in pipeline. The industry is employing 13.1 million people, directly and indirectly. It contributes 17% of the indirect taxes. The export in automotive sector has grown on an average CAGR of 30% per year for the last five years. The export earnings from this sector are 4.08 billion USD out of which the share of auto component sector is 1.8 billion USD during the year 2005-06.

The production of passenger and commercial vehicles crossed the figure of 1.5 million in the year 2005-06, but India’s share is only about 2.37% of world production of 66.46 million passenger and commercial vehicles. Indian automotive export constitutes only about 0.3% of global trade.

The Auto Industry has grown in clusters of interconnected companies, linked by commonalities and complementarities in and around Manesar in North, Pune in West, Chennai in South, Jamshedpur-Kolkata in East and Indore in Central India.

China’s production has trebled from 15.82 lakh units in 1997 to 46 lakh in 2005. India’s production has doubled going up from 7.72 lakh units in 1997 to 15.76 lakh in 2005. The 12 global majors with over 2 million units per year production capacity account for 53.02 million of vehicle produced in 2005, which is 80% of the total production of 66.46 million.

The total size of the Indian component industry is close to USD 14 billion out of which USD 9.6 billion is the domestic OEM market, USD 2.6 billion is the domestic aftermarket and
USD 1.8 billion is the direct exports of components. More than 60% of the exports of autocomponents are to Europe and USA. More than 70% of the exports go to the OEMs and Tier I suppliers and only 30% to the global aftermarket
.
Today, the Indian auto component sector has over 500 organised players and about 5000 unorganised sector players. The organised sector reached a turnover of over USD 10 billion in 2005-06. Demand from OEMs account for 54% of sales, replacement market accounts for 30%, while exports account for over 16% at about USD 1.8 billion.

It is expected that the world production of Auto-Components would reach USD 1.7 Trillion by 2015. About USD 700 billion worth of auto-components shall be sourced out from low cost countries (LCCs) by 2016. If India targets to get a 10% share of this potential, it would mean USD 70 billion, nearly five times current total size of the industry in India.

Compared to domestic sales, vehicle exports have grown at the rate of 39% CAGR over the last five years, led by exports of passenger cars at 57% and two wheeler exports at 35%. Last year however, overall exports registered a growth of around 28%. In value terms exports crossed USD 2 billion.

The projected size in 2016 of the Indian automotive industry varies between USD 122 billion and USD 159 billion including USD 35 billion exports. The industry then would have a contribution of 10-11% to India’s GDP by 2016, that is, double the current contribution. This would mean a domestic vehicle market of USD 82 billion to USD 119 billion by 2016, USD 12 billion exports of vehicles and tractors, USD 20-25 billion component exports and more than USD 5 billion after market of components. Another USD 2 – 2.5 billion in engineering services outsourcing opportunity is expected to develop. The total size of the auto component industry in India is expected to become USD 40-45 billion by 2016.

India is going to be an attractive “Manufacturing Destination”. The output estimated would require incremental investment of USD 35-40 billion (Rs 160,000 -180,000 crores) by 2016.

It is estimated that, on a conservative basis, 5.3, 13.3, 0.5 and 3.9 units of direct and indirect employment are generated per unit of car, CV, 2-wheeler and 3-wheeler produced respectively. Based on this assumption, India would have an additional employment generation of 25 million by the automobile industry by 2016.

In a Global Competitiveness Survey of 104 countries India ranked only 55th. In terms of macroeconomic environment, public institutions and technology, India ranked 52, 53 and 63 respectively. On location attractiveness for manufacturing, India ranked 43 while other regional countries like China, Singapore and Hong Kong ranked 39, 11 and 6 respectively.

A cost comparison study between Indian and Chinese automotive manufacturing companies to identify factors and their magnitude that impact auto manufacturing in India vis-à-vis auto manufacturing in China reveals that the cost of manufacture of a passenger vehicle in China is 23% lower than in India with the principal difference owing to higher taxes and their cascading impact in India. Higher labour productivity and lower infrastructural costs makes China more competitive. The study also revealed that since design and engineering capabilities in India have not been as strong there would be a disadvantage of 30% higher costs for products manufactured in India.

Indian automotive industry must work hard to create the differential strengths with its competition. It has an opportunity with presence of a very strong and innovative IT sector. A synergy between the two can certainly bring out the differentiating features that can be India’s unique strength. Will that happen? Another potential areas of strength might be the product and process engineering design, research, and training skill that India can cash on. Can our IITs and other numerous institutes of excellence will come out of its cocoon of older mindsets and face the challenge to take the country ahead.
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Growth @ 9.2%, best in 18 years
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‘India poised’- Manufacturing Sector- My Apprehensions-II

“Machine tools are the base of all manufacturing. Typically, a machine tool generates demand for 10 times its worth of capital goods, which in turn generates 10 times its value in final goods. So, the boom in machine tools is an indicator of a boom in manufacturing.”

The above quote is from the other article ‘Manufacturing hits high gear’ on manufacturing sector in the series, which deals with the machine tools industry. It starts with the story of K S Prasanna, Ramchandra Hegde and Keshava Murthy who quit Ace Designers and founded a company called Pride Machine Tools. ‘In the first year itself, they have assembled and sold about 50 machines.’ Prasanna and party have certainly done something that is worth congratulations. But many like Prasanna and the group after some stints in HMT or CMTI did establish machine tools units in Bangalore. Unfortunately, only some survived but could not achieve any significant scale. Lokesh Machines and Ace Designers are some from the lot. It all started and ended because of the presence of HMT in Bangalore, that has played a pioneer as well as spoiler role for the development of machine tools in India at different times. Other big players on the Indian scale were Mysore Kirloskar, and Bharat Fritz Werner. But HMT was in all the product lines. These two also couldn’t grow significantly. But it was more because of lack of ambitions and perhaps a missionary zeal too of a real entrepreneur.

Unfortunately, with the support from the government HMT grew too big, manufacturing almost all types of machine tools with technical collaborations from all Western developed and even poorer communist countries. It expanded the range and monopolized the machine tools industry with the products ranging from the center lathes to jig boring machines. It didn’t create a brand name for a particular category of machine tools, the model that even the European and American machine tools companies followed later on. It was not flexible to cut down the margin. It didn’t innovate to cut the cost and build reliability. And one like me feels sorry about the present status of HMT. It could have become a global supplier with resources of manpower and equipment it had. I had last visited HMT in Bangalore in 1997, when the decline had started. But the total manufacturing capability equipment and machinery wise in its fold was more than any of the biggest machine tool manufacturers in the world. HMT is still living on the government dole. The government has decided to pump in Rs 723 crore to revive HMT Machine Tools Ltd. However, besides the dole it must have autonomy and a first class management to get out of the rut. It must fork out the divisions other than the machine tools as fully independent unit or sell them. It must concentrate on some products such as machining centers and turning centers of all sizes. It must go for innovative designs. It must cut down the costs to be competitive, as the auto sectors have done it. It must think of scale in specific category and try to aim and reserve some capacity for export business that in bad time in domestic market can sustain it.

Unfortunately, the machine tools industry didn’t follow the manufacturing model of Japanese machine tools industry- the design and innovation with assembly and critical big components machining only as in-house activities and other manufacturing outsourced.

Let the industry not exaggerate and plan its next move based on the statement such as, “So phenomenal has been the machine tool industry’s growth in India in the past three years that it is now spawning a number of startups, encouraging big new capacity creation by traditional players, and attracting the who’s who of the global industry.” Let the members of IMTMA not get too happy with the growth rate of last three years. It is mostly due to the boom in auto sector and other engineering industries. Unless the manufacturers have strategies to get global as the auto sector is doing and getting global recognition for its excellent performance, the sector can’t grow to a respectable level, and global hub of machine tools, though India has all the capability to be one. If IT software supremacy of India can be matched properly with the innovative and customized design of the hardware of machine tools, India can create a place in machine tools sector. There is no dearth of skill and knowledge.

However, the machine tools sector seems to be in boom. Bharat Fritz Werner (BFW) expects to see a 48% growth in revenues to about Rs 300 crore this fiscal. Ace Micromatic Group has seen a 30% compound annual growth rate in the past four years, with turnover expected to be over Rs 650 crore this year. The Tata Group’s TAL Manufacturing Solutions expects a 40% growth in 2006-07. Does the trend indicate the beginning of a China-like sustained boom in manufacturing?

Most Indian players are making fresh investments. BFW is trying to build for Rs 1,000 crore worth of machines per annum-three times its revenues for this year-and is looking at a new facility to produce its own sub-components (high precision parts).

As on today, domestic consumption at Rs 6,000 crore remains far above what Indian firms can produce (Rs 2,000 crore). Imports today cater to two-thirds of consumption. As reported, many new foreign players- Rosa Ermando of Italy with Bangalore-based Ucam, Spain’s Pinacho, Liebherr of Germany and Nagel of Switzerland are intending to enter the sector. This had happened earlier too. But the foreign companies couldn’t sustain.

Will foreign players use India as a sourcing base for machine tools, as the cost of manufacturing in India is 20-40% lower than in the US and Europe and sustain their current initiative? I shall agree and don’t doubt that India can deliver products that are much better than China’s at equivalent cost. But to get global in machine tools industry requires different mindsets and a real fire in the belly. The industry must aim beyond the alluring and attractive domestic market.
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Error-Proofing Enhances Quality
Modern Machining Methods-More than conventional machining
Lean and Flexible Manufacturing

Posted in industry, management, manufacturing | Leave a comment

Economist, Newsweek, and India

‘The Economist’- North American Edition of Feb 3, 2007 has a cover with- ‘India overheats’ and a special report- India on fire. It also carries a story in Asia section-‘India’s ricksawa- Colonial yokes are not bad for all’. As such ‘The Economist’ is generally critical of India. However one’s criticism is better than someone’s intentional pushing up knowingly for pulling down as the main motive. You feel good seeing so much of coverage for the goingons in your own country in such a prestigious news magazine. The article ‘India overheats’ overviews the status of Indian economy nicely, but ‘India on fire’ presents the problems and cautions.

At some point this year India’s growth rate could even outpace China’s; and if you measure things by purchasing power parity, India should soon overtake Japan and become the third-biggest economy, behind only America and China.

But as a real friendly advice the article continues.

Fast growth is essential to pull millions of Indians out of poverty, so it is sad to pour cold water on this story. But that is precisely what is needed when there are so many alarming signs of overheating.

Inflation has risen to 6-7% (compared with 2.8% in China); a record 99% of Indian firms report that they are operating above their optimal capacity; and credit is expanding at an annual rate of 30%, twice as fast as in China. Unlike China, India also has a widening current-account deficit-a classic sign of overheating, as domestic output fails to keep pace with surging demand. And if you are looking for a stockmarket bubble, Indian share prices have risen more than four-fold over the past four years, far more than in China. If something is not done, then a hard landing will become inevitable.

India is heavily dependent on short-term portfolio capital inflows, rather than foreign direct investment, which is longer-term. Short-term capital has accounted for four-fifths of capital inflows into India over the past three-and-a-half years-although, encouragingly, foreign direct investment did pick up strongly last year. This means India is vulnerable to rising interest rates if there is a sharp reversal in the appetite for risk in global financial markets.

Generous tax exemptions for exporters in special economic zones may erode future revenues. And the government’s Sixth Pay Commission, due to report by April 2008, is likely to lead to a big rise in public-sector pay.

The main focus of the government’s attention should be on supply-and dismantling the many barriers that keep its speed limit below China’s.

Population growth by itself does not add to prosperity, unless young people are educated and new jobs are created.

And under Asia, the issue has a news report about India’s ricksaws- ‘Colonial yokes are not bad for all’.

The Communist government of West Bengal has long wanted to outlaw rickshaws, of the original man-pulled variety, that now exist only in Kolkata. Last December it did so, on the grounds that man-powered transport was inhuman. But what else are the thousands of rickshaw-wallahs, in one of the world’s poorest cities, to do?

I am sure Buddha will go through it.

But the most interesting story has appeared in Newsweek that tells the way is trying to get into high tech. It is story of an individual named Rajesh Jain, ‘The $100 Un-PC’ by Jason Overdorf.

If Rajesh Jain is successful, the NetTV, which hooks up to any television, could be the first in a family of devices that connect the next billion people to the Internet. Jain, 39, is cofounder and chairman of Novatium, the Chennai-based company that makes NetTV and NetPC, a similar product that uses a normal computer monitor. Both are based on cheap cell-phone chips and come without the hard-disk drive, extensive memory and prepackaged software thatadd hundreds of dollars to the cost of regular PCs. Instead, they are little more than a keyboard, a screen and a couple of USB ports-and use a central network server to run software applications and store data. Novatium already sells the NetPC for only $100-just within reach of India’s growing middle class-and Jain believes he can soon drive the price down to $70.

Entrepreneurs, philanthropists and established computer firms have for the better part of a decade invested millions of dollars to lower the cost of a desktop PC and develop cheaper alternatives. Intel has made its Eduwise laptop; AMD, a Personal Internet Communicator; Microsoft, the FonePlus. MIT computer guru Nicholas Negroponte’s Children’s Machine, now called the XO, is the most publicized recent attempt at converting the poor into computer users. But Negroponte’s idea is to spread computers to the poor, with the help of heavy subsidies from private and public philanthropy. His price is still about $140, too high for India. Indeed India rejected Negroponte’s offer of a million for cost reasons. Jain’s motive is different: he wants to make money.

Let us hope the financial wizards of the country headed by the economist Prime Minister would take care of the warnings to avoid overheating as apparent from his promises to deal with inflation that affects badly the more than 505 of the population living on $ 2 a day. And many more Rajesh Jains come forward to take high tech to masses.

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Rural BPOs to bridge digital divide
High growth or hot growth

Posted in economy | Leave a comment