As the Revenue Secretary, Hasmukh Adhia told to media, December 6, Tuesday, ‘ the government expects the entire money in circulation in the form of currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 which have been scrapped to come back to the banking system. Even Arvind Panagariya, NITI head, agrees. It has happened because of the fertile brains of those whom the unscrupulous hoarders employed for advice and execution of the process of transforming black into white.
The government gave certain exemptions to ease the life of common people but it has had to bring about several rule changes in its demonetisation drive to stay one step ahead of the constantly-innovating tax evaders by deploying millions of people throughout the country to exchange old currencies with new ones.
Here is one calculation for making your own estimation: If 2 lakh proxy beneficiaries collected only once a day, the total black to white value was 2,00,000 x 4, 000= 8 00,000,000 ie 8 crore. If it is two to three transactions a day from various branches of the banks in places like Noida , Gurgaon, Faridabad, or Ghaziabad, the value gets increased to 16 or 24 crores. One can estimate how much money became white out of black in all the banks and post offices of the county. Workmen in all establishments and factories, servants and maids, and all those who wanted to get some money made were used by the shrewd finance managers, agents with an incentive of Rs 400-600 per transactions. There were hardly 10 percent genuine needy in the queues in those days.
Other ways were also invented instantaneously : “Jewellers sold 15 tonnes of gold ornaments and bars, worth around Rs 5,000 crore, on the intervening night of November 8 and 9 after the government demonetised Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denomination notes.”
The government is also busy in finding out the black in old currency that got white through foreign currency agents, got deposited in Jan Dhan Accounts, and regular accounts of many individuals with huge allurements, got distributed in employees and cadres of the political parties as advance, and with the involvement of bank employees in the illegal exchanges.
One must feel bad there were all educated masterminded individuals called by different names as chartered accountants and financial experts running companies who keep on innovating new ways to evade taxes. While most in banks and other places worked day and night to bring normalcy after the great step to curb black money and reduce corruption, many black sheep helped the unscrupulous lot at their cost. Indians have mastered this art over the last seven decades if not more. With best possible intention, no Modi can make these typical behaviour of Indians changed.
There is now hardly prospect of any windfall gains accruing to the government arising out of part of the demonetised currency remaining outside the banking system. “Some experts had projected that a part of the demonetised currency notes — of a value of Rs 14.17 lakh crore at the end of March 2016 — would not return to the banking system. In a report, the SBI estimated that Rs 2.5 lakh crore may not return to the system. Based on such calculations, reports emerged that this would lead to substantial gains to the government considering that this would lower the liabilities of the RBI. This, in turn, it was argued could transfer a higher surplus to the sovereign, opening up the prospect of spending on infrastructure, or capitalisation of banks.”
The unscrupulous ones with support of opposition and media are still working with full vigour to thwart all moves of the RBI to overcome the trouble for the common people. They are behind the disappearance of smaller currency notes and none acceptance of Rs. 2000 currency notes with rumour of ban on it in near future.