It is getting serious. Slow down is real. Achievable growth rate for the current fiscal is being reduced again and again.
According to a survey of professional forecasters by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), forecast for growth in gross domestic product (GDP) was scaled down by 60 basis points for 2011-12 and by 40 basis points for 2012-13. The revised GDP forecast for the current year now stands at seven per cent, down from 7.6 per cent earlier. For 2013, the growth forecast is now 7.3 per cent, compared with 7.7 per cent projected earlier.
I wish instead of presenting the dismal decaying governance, the persons at the head of affairs be he is our prime minister; finance minister or head of planning commission or reserve bank would have laid out the roadmap of reversing the growth rate from reducing to increasing. They must do what they can and let the industrialists, farmers and the workers know whatever their expectations from them are.
Growth in savings fell to 13.7% during 2010-11, compared to 21% in the previous year because of high inflation, pulling down the share of gross domestic savings in GDP by 1.5%,
Finance minister is loosing sleep brooding over the huge subsidy. “As the finance minister when I think of enormity of the subsidies to be provided, I lose my sleep. There is no doubt,” Mukherji expects the subsidy bill, pegged at 1.4 lakh crore in the budget, to overshoot the target by 1 lakh crore. Mukherji must prepare a course to cut down the unproductive subsidy. Instead of the subsidy, the amount of expenditure on infrastructures such as irrigation facilities must increase exponentially. The subsidy must gradually end. It is not benefitting the desired needy lot but getting distributed in unscrupulous individuals who design, plan and implement the system to make it easy for them to grab the major portion.
January exports rose 10.1% to $25.4 billion while imports rose 20.3% to $40.1 billion. Import is surpassing export month by month may go to $160 billion increasing the trade gap. Is it all oil? How much of the increase is because of so called globalization and free trade? Interestingly, India may import $100 billion worth of gold. Is there any harm in finding fair means in reducing the import? Is there any effort to keep the import to only the most essential? Do we put any effort for that either through incentive, motivation, or even regulation? Government seems to know the need to curb the import.
Industrial production growth is low. Manufacturing sector might have a policy but hardly has the support of any industrial policy to make it grow visibly bringing hope.
The World Bank recent cautioned India in particular to prepare for a crisis. Should India not take it in right spirit?
Communists suggest to collect the tax concessions given to the rich (nearly R15 lakh crore during the last three years) and to use for public investments to build our much needed social and economic infrastructure while generating large-scale employment. But could not the government demand some control on bad money in public banks? The banks find hundred of reasons for not giving loans of few thousands to a needy farmer or artisans but hardly hesitate to loan millions to many in so-called unscrupulous business community.
And now even CBI director A P Singh says, “It is estimated that around 500 billion dollars of illegal money belonging to Indians is deposited in tax havens abroad. Largest depositors in Swiss Banks are also reported to be Indians.” Can nothing be done to bring back the money? It is amazing just how little India is willing to carefully look at the sources of the $50 billion inflows that the RBI calls “remittances”.
Every year, the government provides direct and indirect subsidies worth R3 lakh crore, half of which is direct.
It will do little or nothing to dismantle the transfer economy that feeds its votes. How long we give on pouring in the tax-payers money in white elephants of public sector companies?
If the government and people are satisfied with the present way of development and growth, how can some divine powers brings it?
Government lacks the mission and vision, perhaps both.
As reported in media, Manmohan Singh recently got out of his slumber and has started taking interest in matters that may help to boost the economy. I wish it’s true and continues.