SA Aiyar in his Sunday ‘Swaminomics‘ that has appeared as a letter addressed to Ratan Tata suggests ‘about JLR going into hybrids and electric plug-ins not to save the planet, just to save JLR – and may be even Tata Motors – from extinction.’
Aiyar’s suggestion has come because of a new realization among the auto manufacturers. The battery-powered cars are now here to stay. ‘Economist’ in one of its lead articles has similar recommendations: “Over the next 40 years the global fleet of passenger cars is expected to quadruple to nearly 3 billion. China, which will soon overtake America as the world’s biggest car market, could have as many cars on its roads in 2050 as are on the planet today; India’s fleet may have multiplied 50-fold. Forecasts of this kind led Carlos Ghosn, boss of the Renault-Nissan alliance, to declare 18 months ago that if the industry did not get on with producing cars with very low or zero emissions, the world would “explode”. Cars already contribute around 10% of the man-made greenhouse gases that are responsible for climate change.”
In addition to the increasing number of petrol-electric hybrids, mainstream manufacturers will soon offer cars powered solely by electric motors such as Nissan’s Leaf and Chevrolet’s Volt. The Leaf’s battery power will have a range of about 160km (100 miles) before it needs to be plugged in for a fresh charge. The Volt will have a small petrol-engine generator to recharge its batteries on trips of more than 65km. Both are medium-sized cars offering decent performance. Electric cars from other mainstream manufacturers are not far behind.
Tesla Roadster, the sports version has been the pioneer. It goes from zero to 100kph (62mph) in 3.7 seconds-not much slower than a top-line Ferrari. However, it costs $121,000, and made for a niche market. The niche markets are the classic way in for a disruptive technology. Tesla’s next vehicle, the Model S, is a more mainstream family car at about $50,000 though still not very cheap. However, the price is high because of its range. According to its maker, the Roadster can travel almost 400km between charges. The Model S should be able to do even better. There can always be a trade off. A lot of researchers are working on making them cheaper and faster to charge.
Mitsubishi’s i-MiEV, expected to be on sale next year and with initial price of ¥4.6m ($49,000), will cut its price by half once the car goes on sale outside Japan. That halving (and potential quartering) of price compared with a Tesla Roadster will be because the i-MiEV’s battery has only 88 Li-ion cells, rather than the Tesla’s 1,800.
Daimler (which also owns 6% of Tesla) in Germany plans to start producing a Li-ion-powered version of its Smart Fortwo with a battery capacity to keep the vehicle going for around 115km.
As reported, China is well on the way to get into electric cars replacing those using gasoline or diesel and may take a global lead. BYD’s Auto launched the world first mass produced plug-in electric car, the F3DM that sells at $ 22,000 in December 2008 unlike the American. The Chinese car company Chery has already followed BYD and launched a plug-in hybrid car in February, and its rival Geely plans to unveil its plug-in hybrid later in 2009.
Aiyar would have suggested Tata to get into electric versions for the mass produced vehicles such as Nano, Indica, Indigo or some new platform in future. With its resources and global ambitions, only Tata Motors and M&M can get into the electric cars for mass marketing.
Tata’s innovative approach for Nano made a ripple in the auto world globally after its launch and well recognized. Unfortunately, Tata Motors has failed to get it turned into the storm. That would have come only with the scaling up both the quantity and the unique quality features through some real innovations. In years to come, the companies will win the competition more and more with its innovative approaches.
It is sad that the professors of IITs and IIMs have gone for trade union style of agitation, but they hardly collaborate with the industry to come out with some breakthrough innovations. Can they come out with some of the innovative ideas that can make Indian automakers win with Chinese?
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However, the fresh air of hope comes from a little known company of the country. Interestingly, by the next year, Reva, the only electric car manufacturer of India plans to introduce the NXR in around 24 countries across Europe and Asia. The NXR plugs into a home outlet and will go into production in the first quarter of 2010. With lithium-ion battery, it can run at a top speed of 104 kph, more than twice the speed of current Reva and can cover a distance of 160 km per charge. The Reva NXG or next generation, a sporty two-seater, will go into production in 2011. It has top speed of 130 kph and can cover 200 km range per charge.
दृष्टिकोण - Indra's Viewpoint 